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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (2167)	1/8/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4710

Agree with many of your points wizard. Glad we can converse again. Yep, if book to bill compresses slightly, the stock will come under pressure. We have a nibble of a core position, but I am quite nervous about the nature of the shareholder base. I think the reason the stock behaves differently than the other semiconductor stocks is that the communications semiconductor group is now properly separating itself from the general semi guys. Their performance should be in line with the performance of the networking business. I consider the com semi group a relatively safe play on internet mania. They shouldn't all act the same though. We own PMCS as an example and like VTSS it's more oriented towards wan communications. The product cycles and design wins have much more persistence. I'd bet there will be panic driven buying opportunities in the next 12 months. Perhaps there will be something like PMCS last june. That's when the company said we're taking R&D spending from 20% to 24% of revenues since customers were demanding PMCS fill more real estate on each board and folks like nicholas applegate dumped the thing in the low forties pushing it down to the low thirties. Since these are complex stories, it seems likely that there will be some time or another that creates an opportunity to back up the truck. In case there isn't we have a "taste." Loving my SAP short (not). Amusing market isn't it. betcha the bankers satiate the demand for tech stuff this year. TD