To: MARK BARGER who wrote (34555 ) 1/8/1999 10:03:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
Ride the Oilpatch Recovery and Short the Net with the profits... The timing could work out perfectly here. OSX 85-100 by 4th of July and OSX 100-120 by the next infamous ''Black October'' - the pre-Y2K Net Crash...of 1999. These 20-30-50 point days in Net-Land are going to end soon; some very influential CEO's at some Major Fund Companies are going to very shortly come tapping some managers on the shoulder and whisper - ''sell, sell it all and sell it now.'' They will allready have their ''year'' made by February... how is a Fund Manager going to explain how he looses a few Mill or hundred Mill in the ultimate freefall that is going to happen. With the absurd valuations in the overall market, especially in the tech area - the writing is one the wall imho, How can anyone read this article from TSC and not rethink where they are putting their money; and not envison another Black October coming... read these stats - the ''Can do no Wrong'' - Cisco, with a PE of 101 and only 35% revenue growth - Wake up World !?!?!? These stocks are not doubling revenue & earnings year over year over year.... what are people thinking ? If Cisco is this ridiculous; what the hell are the Internet Valuations ? No one can ''backtrack'' the numbers from where Amazon or Yahoo's revenues must go to even support ultimately a PE of 50-60 or even 100. Ultimately, these companies can never support these numbers ? Amazon bigger than Sears ''today'' - where does it go to in 5 years ? 50% of GDP ? .... oh yes; my 2nd fortune <VBG> will be made on shorting the Internet ; gaaaaarooooooonteeeeeeed ! <<The Coming Year: Communications Networkers Must Live Up to the Hype By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 1/7/99 11:09 AM ET Communications-equipment makers such as Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Lucent (LU:NYSE) and Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq) ended 1998 full of holiday cheer thanks to Wall Street's continued love affair with their stocks. This year, they'll have to prove they are worth their high premiums. The top 10 builders of communication networks saw their shares swell by an average of 58% this year, even though their revenue ticked up only 14% and operating profits gained an average 4% in the four most recent quarters reported by each company. Cisco's stock grew 150% even though the company increased revenue 34%; rival Lucent also added 175% to its market value as it posted 14% gains in revenue. Cisco trades at 101 times its profits for the past four quarters, and Lucent trades at 156 times trailing earnings. Ascend and 3Com (COMS:Nasdaq) have also thrived lately, while laggard Cabletron (CS:NYSE) appears to be in a tailspin as losses mount. >>