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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (17563)	1/9/1999 4:20:00 PM
From: DaiS	Respond to of 23519

Thanks Vlad and MK, forgot that Vivus did not ship out much domestically in Q3 because of stuff not used in pharmacies etc because of Viagra launch. Vlad, using your corrections, 0.75 for IMS, $18 per unit, 13 wks per quarter, 5 units per script avg gives $5.9M against the $3.5M reported. Let us hope that now demand reconciled to production and that domestic revenue will be higher than in Q3. Last week I was interested to check figures for UK Riskman said he got from Astra UK. Phoned….they put me to Vivus UK…Nobody from sales there,Terry Nida away in New Jersey but nice lady took my message and E-mail and said she would E-mail Mr Nida. I joked that I never got reply from ir@vivus .com. She said, "..but it's their job to do that…" and apologised profusely three times. So I wait to see if Mr Nida contacts me. Riskman said £0.5M per month Astra revenue for UK. I was told by Astra Sweden 61MEK for firtst 8 months (includes UK Sweden and Switzerland). So gives: Riskman $2.5M per qtr UK………DaiS $2.8M per qtr …tie up quite nicely IMO. Following MK, and taking Riskman's £10 per unit for Astra (=$16-$17$ OK?) gives say from 2900 (4 units per script) to 1900 (6 units per script) which converts to US equivalent adjusted for population size of 13400 to 8900. Currently in US 3800 per week or about 5100 with Vlad's 0.75 IMS correction. Thus, Astra is selling about 2x as much in UK as currently in US…Is this what we expect, I was a bit disappointed? From the Riskman figure the proportion of Q3 revenue attributable to UK would be about 17% and that to supply the number of International units for $14.6M Q3 revenue the new plant would be working at only 25% capacity. I always assumed that Q4 was going to be awful because of a lot of stuff shipped in Q3 and nowhere for it to go in Q4. However I note now that the combined population size of the countries approved or launched is now 900M amd the EC is 372M. And the EC population alone is 6X UK so perhaps everything can be soaked up and plausible news of recall of production workers for January. On the basis of the 50000 UK units per month UK, for EC I get estimate of $1 per annum contribution to eps assuming $7 for Vivus and cog 4$ each unit. DaiS