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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Murphy who wrote (2962)	1/9/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 82218

BIll: After much thought I think I have figured why the stock bears have been so wrong far, but will soon be correct. Their fundamental mistake was to assume that the powers that be would be unable to halt a deflationary spiral in its tracks. As Milton Friedman has said -- halting a deflation is easy if you are willing to print enough money. With Asia stabilizing and cyclical stocks in general starting to act much better, those betting on a deflationary spiral could not be more wrong. In retrospect, the failure of gold to move over $300 during last fall's stock decline was a strong signal that the market would come roaring back. This bull will not be down for the count until stocks plunge and gold soars. As long as gold is kept below $300 the fundamentals of the bull market will remain intact. This bull will end just as past bulls (except 1924-29) have ended -- when inflationary pressures start to mount, commodity prices soar, interest rates rise, and the dollar gets trashed. We should see this soon, but still are not there yet. But the strength in cyclicals and oils and probable strength in gold before long tells me the end is not far off. When gold breaks $300 and stays there, this bull market will be on the verge of extinction. But not until then.