Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ArtAlley who wrote (3642)	1/8/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: steve brooks	Respond to of 56535

All (S) CYMI: I picked this up from the CYMI thread and I think it explains the run in CYMI and other semi conductor stocks. Since the beginning of the year up about 8 points or roughly 61% and since 10/98 up about 140%. Currently, the Clear Station chart is pretty good IMHO. The MACD histogram is crossing the center line, volume has picked up especially today with 1.8 mil shares compared to the 3 month ave of 420K. The fast stochastics is moving up well ahead of the slow which is also moving up. I will be away for a week visiting the inlaws to be so I will look forward to catching up in a week or so. Trade Well Steve From Briefing.com: "DRAM Supply: according to CNBC, PC makers could be experiencing a DRAM shortage, explaining the rise of Micron Technology (MU 63) in recent sessions; according to CNBC, Compaq Computer (CPQ 44 9/16) may be anticipating a rise in the DRAM spot prices by as much as 20%; currently, DRAM prices have been quoted in the $9 range....." Profits for DRAM suppliers to invest in new fabs or upgrading existing ones?

To: ArtAlley who wrote (3642)	1/8/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: Trader J	Respond to of 56535

Art: ASCT - He needs to understand the psychology behind a takeover rumor. There are many takeover rumors everyday for one company or another. What normally happens is once there is takeover speculation the price swings dramatically to the upside and stays there for a number of days until the impatient hands slowly begin to sell and volume drops off. At this point, the price comes down. Take a look at the PAIR, CIEN, ABTX or SQNT rumors of late. Each of these in the past 3-4 months has had two takeover runs each....only to have their price slowly decline. The fact that they, as rumored, turned down a $10 offer really means nothing other than the fact that an offer was made and another one may be coming. If another offer is tendered, and acceptance is imminent, you will see the volume and price increase that happened before about a month ago. Rumors are only as good as their sources and only time will tell but I can tell you that I have a fair number of shares betting with the source on this one and WILL be adding more. At this level, there is not enough downside risk for me to even worry about whether or not the rumor is true or not. If it is not true, we end up in the high 2s or low 3s until the expected FDA approvals hit in the 2nd quarter or thereabouts. If it is true, we all do well. But don't get me wrong....I do not want anyone to play this rumor as if it is a sure thing. If it was a sure thing, it would be trading much higher. So basically, I see no difference in the way it is trading now compared to any other rumored takeover play. It had the same type of rumor, then a price run, followed by slow weakness until the rumor hits again. Watch the volume for any clues. Hopefully this helps but this one will not be for the impatient or those not suited to risk. I am patiently impatient. TJ