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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Stempson who wrote (5635)	1/9/1999 8:09:00 AM
From: Bob B.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

The shorts have been hammering IOM for months but I think their string has just about run out. I don't see a drop back below 7 again unless the 4Q98 EPS is below .05. If that happens, there's a tremendous buying opportunity because 1Q99 will be a much stronger quarter. My personal prediction for 1999 EPS is .70, mostly on the strength of panic-level Y2K sales of Zip disks and drives. If Clik! takes off, the year could be better still. BTW, I don't see .70 being sustained - a drop-off to .40 or .50 EPS for 2000 wouldn't surprise me, unless they find some million-unit sellers for Clik! I don't think digital cameras will do the trick unless the costs come way down. When I look at camera ads, old-technology cameras still dominate the advertising by at least a 10-1 ratio. I bought heavily into IOM in 10/98 and added more during the December dips, but my plan is sell most or all of my position in 10/99 while the love affair is still running hot. What would keep me in is a killer Clik! app, like an Ericsson smartphone with built-in Clik!, or a cheap MP3 player. Clikman below $250 sounds good, but to really penetrate this market, the price needs to come down another $100. FWIW, here's what I see for 99: Now to 1/25 - stays within $7 to $10 range 1/25 to 3/25 - if EPS is .06 or better, climbs to the $11 to $14 range as institutional participation goes from 9 to 15 percent. If .03 to .05, stays in the $7 to 10 range, perhaps with a short "disappointment" run below $7. This really doesn't matter long-term. The 4Q98 EPS depends to some degree on when IOM captures, or chooses to capture, the Xmas sales. Glore is slick - the bragging rights afforded by a great quarter are not worth the subsequent doubts as to sustainability - so he may well "smooth" some of the sales into the 1Q99 picture and come in just above expectations. 3/25 to 5/25 - fueled by whispers of an awesome 1Q99, the price begins a gradual rise from $13 to $18. The hammering caused by daytrader activity diminishes. The 1Q99 EPS is around .15, fully supporting the price and the confidence. With two profitable quarters and great prospects to rely on, institutional participation climbs from 15 to 25 percent. 5/25 to 7/25 - the dimensions of the Y2K sales begin to be fully appreciated, and prospects for 2Q99 are seen as awesome. Institutional participation climbs to 37 percent, and the price goes from $18 to $24. 7/25 to 10/25 - the love affair period - everyone can see what Y2K means, and Iomega has lots of good news to report on all fronts. IOM achieves "hot stock" status and the price begins to break free of the classic valuation factors. Coincidentally, some of the more inflated Internet gasbags are blowing up, so there are lots of technology sector investors looking for a place to park their money. The price goes from $24 to $35. 10/25 to 1/1/00 - doubts as to sustainability set in. Iomega is doing well and there aren't a lot of other good places to park the money, but the price drifts back down to the $25 to $28 range.