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To: Lucky L who wrote (117)	1/9/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 1805

Hi Lois, I agree. The returns this year have been very unsustainable. The Internet crowd is due to be hurt the worst. The problem with calling a top is the historical experience of 1929. If you had been worried and sold out in the middle of 1927 when the market seemed extreme, you would have missed a double in the market into Oct. of 1929. However, if you sold in 1927, you also missed the biggest bear market in history between 1929 and 1932. But you felt like a fool for about eighteen months. I wrote a post in August to the Vertex Pharmaceutical thread which pointed out the following: 1. Corporate insider buying was at very high levels. 2. The put call ratio was extremely high; and 3. Sentiment was very negative as measured by Investor's Intelligence. Five months later, insider buying is neutral, put call is neutral, and sentiment is very positive. It has all reversed but not completely. I also mentioned the then need for an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve which we got. If the bear percentage gets to 25% in the Investor Intelligence survey (it's 30% now), I'm headed for 100% cash.