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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saulmon who wrote (22416)	1/9/1999 4:27:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Saulmon- If you remember my target on NDX was 1750 little did I realise in my setting of the target than that AMZN can move up to 500$'s or 600 give and take few points, hence I see NDX at 1900 plus. Much beyond my target although I maintain that 1350 on SPH is doable but with broad rally and not alone on euphoric concentration of internet related stocks. it is for this reason that even I have some reservations on RUT beyind 440 as this index will be hurt as most of the internet related stocks like Earth Link, others also within this index. I know that continuing my trades which I initiated at the lows of the market would have added new laurels, gg-- but the kind of analysis I rely upon and kind of investment I believe in has no room for these excesses. I am not a pessimist, like self stytled shorts who have been calling for short INTC MOT TXN MU ay 60 $ 45$ 40$ 25$ respectively,some of these species are still alive and kicking on the 'self destruct threads of SI'. These places which I call the 'mutual admiration junctions of bears' have been throwing new conspiracies on destruction of global finacial system dime a dozen but losing on all counts is a painful process and therefore bears are very sensitive to criticism and if mirror is shown to them.ggggg 'Hurt them not' and let them go around spreading their non-sense is the conventional wisdom dispensed. 'Me' is a realist and that is why I keep a realistic approach to the market. For me my trade is long put straddles to take advantage of any fall, yesterday morning as market opened higher we bought SPH 1270 at 71/2 and as we saw weakeness at 1274 area we got out of 1270's and the 1260's established a day earlier at 12 and 9 respectively, making a good return that is the right approach a combo of long puts and short puts where you leg out of the short side as euphoric moves takes internets to new highs and maintain the long put to sqaure at a dip.. This along with divergence into Oil sector and BKX and my core ctocks like NOK MSFT TXN has given me good presence and visibility of the market, I also noted that 401 resistance was solid on SOX and we retreated from there. I would think that 'internet rally' is propelled by internet, the media which is subject of the rally is the 'instrument' helping the frenzy of internet investment feeding on its ownself. This is dangerous and should be avoided, if you want to see the evidence look at the big blocks being traded on internets, yesterday at one point I was talking to my guys and we were noticing that AMZN 14 milion shares had only 93 big blocks traded. For a normal stock this should have been 280-350 big blocks on 14 million volume, the deduction is that lot of money and paper profit is being 'created' and someone will decide some point in time 'to have a go at it'. may be we will see a lot of sad faces but beofre that a lot of smiling one too and I really don't know for how long! I know from 'rumor den' that a hedge fund is secretly engaged in forming a policy to go after internets like British pound in 1992 or the Hong Kong $, I have yet to see who is going to be the bank of last resort for these internets? To be more exact who is going to rescue them.. Who is going to be Hong Kong monetary authority for these stocks that is to say who is going to buy once the big one's come to short. Look around and think about it where ever finacial excesses are conducted the punishment is always very severe, now examples of 'Long term' are in front of us, if I am a hedge fund looking for opportunities where I can make some money on finanacial euphoria where else I will look but at these hi fliers and where else I will find so much at stake to be wiped clean. Does that alone not give you an initial indication of how a wizard like Sorros will be thinking and this is a good one to reap as participation is universal and at grass root level, the type like 'Tulip mania' we are talking here about hundred of billions of savings and disposable income to be wiped clean.. This may take a month or may take AMZN to 1000$ but the trade I will have and will continue to run is the preparation for big one on internet loking at track record on directional trades I see I am amply rewarded for my patience and hence I am patiently waiting. I don't believe in paper profits for me the target of NDX is back to 1750. I will see it until such time I say best of luck to all the million of internet hooked tradrs who are compulsions to the continuity of the maniac internet rally. It is ironic that this ponzi scheme needs no fuel the internet trading itself is concentrated 90% on these stocks and the reason some of these stocks are going higher is that interent trading has seen a multifold increase. I leave the decision on your judgement but one needs to be careful and very analytical in determining the allocations to these sectors.. I know it all sound very unfashionable from a 'super long' of SI or the 'only long' of SI at 1310 but such is reality I pick bottoms and tops, I am sure I am going to close on this one very accurately like I did very recently on BKX and OSX, from a very boring sector a return of 24% in less than 9 sessions is what I like to do on internets, I will not stand in front of this rolling train, but short peripheral indexes and long SPH is the trade, let the market pay for the euphoria, if you are smart you don't have to even pay for it. Arbitrage I am surprised at the possiblities of this arbitrage, the Noble lauretes need to watch and devise a mechanism once the premiums disappear the slide will be just great....