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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (7530)	1/9/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: EACarl	Respond to of 10921

John, I have missed Cary here on these threads, He was/is one of my favorite and most respected and in my opinion honest and sincere posters here. Well, I have to agree with his (Cary) thinking. However at this point, I am not selling.(net the sector - that is) While I agree that these semi-equips are ahead of themselves, The sector is so volatile, and there certainly could be a pullback, I think these stocks will be higher than the current prices in a year or 2, so rather than sell now and miss future moves up, I am simply buying more on the pullbacks. I guess I have a greater fear of selling and missing the next huge move from here than I do holding and losing some money short term, because I will buy more on the dips and have. For example: HELX got up to $14 a few weeks ago and pulled back to $10-11. I bought more at $11 and it is now $16. KLIC got to around $21 and pulled back to $16-17. I bought more at $17 and now it is around $23. The list goes on, but you see my point. I have sold some NVLS (not replaced) and put the money in others. SFAM, COHU and the two already mentioned come to mind. Anyway to make a long story longer, if there is (and there certainly will be at some point) another pullback and Cary (or anyone else) times it right, they can buy back cheaper and make more long term. I, on the other hand worry about selling these guys too soon. I have done it before. Eric. PS. Next time I see a good "low price to cash" stock, you'll be hearing from me.

To: Q. who wrote (7530)	1/9/1999 12:37:00 AM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

John, by the way, I DO totally agree with you about AMAT. I do look at the historical prices and ratios and business conditions of the time and here are three facts: 1. AMAT at all time highs. 2. AMAT price 5 times the 1996 low. 3. Business conditions now worse than at the time of the 1996 low. Of course, if business conditions do continue to improve, it will most likely continue to go up regardless of valuation. I do not own ANY AMAT, but I own many others which are 1/2 to 1/3 their all time highs. It really is kind of sickening, but AMAT has always received crazy valuations. Kind of the current (what I call) "mega-cap" mentality. If a company is huge buy buy buy, it will go up. I get some satisfaction though from buying NVLS a couple years ago , because I thought it was better than AMAT, and it has outperformed AMAT. A little justice in the world!