To: GST who wrote (33785 ) 1/9/1999 3:18:00 PM From: jach Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
What an unpredictable week. Extremely hard to imagine a stock can runup this much in such a short time. It's hard to say what's going to happen near term. Some points to ponder and maybe if one can at least get some out of this for the future. 1. At split day AMZN announced to expect more loss. Typical market experience says AMZN likely will go down. 2. Shorts hold on, likely more shorts added, and many short JAN call options got opened, also adding to the already JAN OI for open call options. Because of the split, the existing options contract also went up three times more adding to the volatility. 3. Stock did the typical gyration of the day. Some shorts and some open call optionees (including MMs) bought back into the stocks adding momentum to the typical day traders. 4. This happened for Wed, Thu and most of Friday. Friday panic was triggered by AMZN announement of opening up a new facility. This for other stocks may be a non-event, but for AMZN seems as a bullish sign. 5. Next week is option expiry and we'll very likley see extreme up-down movements. Other points: 1. You win some and you lose some, that's life. 2. After the facts is always correct, so don't try to make negative comments about others' trades and decisions. 3. The hard decision is when the confirmation button needs to be clicked, or pressed. 4. Too much information is not necessarily always good. The WEB enables instant price information at all times which can play into ones'emotions and fears and put pressure on decisions made under those circumstances. IMO, AMZN is still way overvalued and will come down within a year. But near-term it is very hard to say.