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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: Jenne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Thanks Cosmo! ..but everyone is saying the stock is overbought and too high.. and I bought many more than 200.. so Im freaked.. I just watched it fallaway. What do you think will bring for Monday..... I know long term it will be a great company.. but Im sooooooo anxious now. (gulp)

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: ChinuSFO	Respond to of 164684

<< .....Our investment is on the right track. The price action Friday is good and shows sign of continued strength. The price hit an all time high, pulled back sharply but closed well above the low for the day. This is the most bullish sign you will see. I doubled my position on the pullback. >> Cosmo I fully agree with your views. Hold tight for sometime and you will not be sorry. Chinmoy

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Peter Bernhardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN is using the AOL business model that has made them a blue chip internet stock. The model is keep investing in the company to get customers now and worry about profits later. This is a dangerous fallacy. The only thing AOL and AMZN have in common is the first letter of their ticker symbol. While it may be true that Amazon is wooing customers by selling product at a loss, there is absolutely no guarantee that those same customers will be repeat customers, let alone that Amazon can ever manage to sell product to those millions of customers at a profit. In AOL's business model, each customer provides a guaranteed subscriber fee every month. It is absurd to make the same assumption about an Amazon customer. Besides the fallacy of guaranteed revenue from a customer base, Amazon has yet to address the nagging problem of selling product at a loss. The company itself has admitted that fulfillment costs are variable and will only go up as sales increase. Where is the economy of scale? In other words, whereas AOL increases its profit margin as it builds its subscriber base, Amazon can only boast increased losses as it increases sales. - Peter B

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Respond to of 164684

<<f you buy 100 to 200 shares of AMZN now and hold it for five years you will probably be a millionaire. >> This means an investment of $16K will become $1M... or more than 60 times in 5 years. You could possibly have said that 12-18 months ago, but such a statement today is totally ridiculous. Even if AMZN continue with its current growth rate for 5 years, which is almost impossible, they will hardly make the kind of cash flows then to justify today's market cap of $25-$30 billions...let alone the impossible market cap of $1.8 trillions you are suggesting. AMZN will not be in 5 years ..5 times bigger than Microsoft is now! Come back to earth. Internet stock will be huge success...no doubt. E-tailing will grow and the business model will likely be sucessful.. (altough it is not yet proven for AMZN....they still have no profits and might not have as much as people think they will). There is a big difference between the reality of a business and the price of its stock (its market capitalization). We are now in a bubble were stocks have been bid up by investors to level that are no longer make sense with the reality. Those who are buying at these levels and looking to stay long 5 years...will lose as all bubbles explode. They better look up to other market sector that are neglected today and will move higher in the next 10 years. CC Editor, The Goldbug's Comment.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: reg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

For 100 shares of AMZN to make her a millionaire in 5-6 years would require AMZN to be at 50X it's current market cap. That would put it over 1 trillion dollars or twice the GDP of Canada. A little silly don't you think? Wait until all those Barnes and Noble customers start using BarnesandNoble.com quite regularly. AMZN will start to slow down as more and more competition in their arena arrives. Same thing happened to GM, Sears, etc. They are not like an MSFT with a virtual monopoly or an Intel whose competitors have huge capital expenditures. Neither are their margins anywhere near as high. They never will be.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

If you buy 100 to 200 shares of AMZN now and hold it for five years you will probably be a millionaire. Sure there will be downturns and upturns but that's what makes a market. AMZN is using the AOL business model that has made them a blue chip internet stock. The model is keep investing in the company to get customers now and worry about profits later. AMZN has a huge cash flow, Cosmos, I have not looked at the replies to this but suspect many have reiterated what I am about to type. AOL and AMZN are in entirely different businesses. One is a content provider and an ISP. The other is a retailer. Do you know the definition of a business model? A huge cash flow? Whay did AMZN need to raise cash last spring and will need to raise more this fall? There are only so many books that will be sold each year and AMZN is cutting the bricks and mortar retailers out of the market. I ordered three books and had them sent as gifts, no mailing time for me, credit card already on file, no trip to Borders, best price for the books. Speaking of credit cards, this is another reason AMZN will grow. Your card number is on file. Why did Barnes and Noble's superstore's sales increase? Anyone can keep your credit card on file and the portals are doing that for thousands of merchants. Glenn

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 164684

>>AMZN has a huge cash flow, they sell you a book and get your payment and then pay for the book about 14 days later. This is a huge resource for them.<< everything is paid for with a credit card. 2-3% is hacked right off the top. how long until the credit card companies turn around and pay amzn? this huge resource ain't so big anymore ;-)

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

If you buy AMZN and hold five years, you are just as likely to have nothing to show for it. Friday was the high water mark -- not only for this week or this year, but forever.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 164684

With an argument like that, who else can dare argue with you! <<cdaiseyPhD@heliopause.com >> I see, you have a Ph.D. I have one too. But I had to earn it - like many things in life, if you know what I mean.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (33831)	1/9/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 11 the US market was as immature as the International Internet advertising market is today. This is likely to benefit them on two fronts; 1) as international traffic grows in importance to big US sites, they are realizing that this traffic is an under-utilized asset that DoubleClick could, uniquely, monetize for them. This was the rationale behind DoubleClick's recent deal with Sportsline. Second, by staking out international territories early as the Internet develops as a medium DCLK can be the one of the first to establish an experienced sales team within that country. DCLK has recognized a critical factor in the development of the web, critical mass is measured on a localized basis, not an aggregate one. To help both increase its user base and add value to those customers that generate dollars for its network of sites, DCLK has recently introduced Closed Loop Marketing Solutions. Designed for advertisers and currently in beta, management is pleased with development and have wisely set the bar low, hoping to under-promise and over-deliver for their customers. We'll address the Closed Loop products in a later report on DCLK, but suffice it to say that Closed Loop is designed to make the Internet easier and more effective for advertisers. DoubleClick reports their December quarter January 20 th ; we continue to believe, based on our meetings with the management team and our field research, that our top line estimate of $23 million is conservative. Sterling Commerce Dublin, Ohio: 5, SE: 45 News that Sterling set their annual shareholders' meeting for March 4 at their headquarters in Dublin, Ohio got us to thinking about what a dichotomy there is between the temperature in Dublin, Ohio these days and the temperature of the stock; Sterling has risen more than 10 points off its late December mid $30s level to the $44 where it sits today, approaching its all time high of $50. We must admit that following this stock for the last year has, at times, been an exercise in frustration; it just can't seem to get out of its own way and has traded in a fairly wide band ($20 to $50). We will be watching closely to see if the stock finally starts to reflect the advance in the company's fundamentals over the past 4 quarters and break through that magic $50 level or if it is simply participating in Net frenzy. Netscape Netscape's Netcenter portal announced that it had reached a membership milestone, having broker the 10 million members barrier by adding a whopping 9 million new members to the site in the last 12 months. Observations Whoa Nellie!, Or “Big Media Dynamism Part II” If you're like us, you lamented the passing of a football commentating legend in Keith Jackson, ABC's wry (and let's face it, ancient) college football analyst who broadcast his last game at the Fiesta Bowl last week before retiring from the business (our favorite Jackson line of all time remains “I played football with his daddy”). Unfortunately, Jackson ended up apologizing for his bosses (ABC, ESPN, and Disney) a bit too much for our liking, taking some of the fun away from the spectacle of his last play-by-plays. What was the cause of those mea culpas? Seems the folks at Disney/Infoseek hadn't anticipated the traffic levels that their “enhanced television” (we're not making that up) service (that is, a Web tie-in with the Fiesta Bowl broadcast that included statistics, chats, an interactive football game ) A few minutes after kickoff, Jackson was forced to announce that the maximum number of