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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Bernhardt who wrote (33834)	1/9/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Alex Abuin ?+!=$$$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Don't feed the Trolls....

To: Peter Bernhardt who wrote (33834)	1/9/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

As someone who has believed for quite some time that this stock is so grossly overvalued as to defy description, I read the above with a mixture of both sympathy and (I regret this) some gratification. Peter, I can't say I feel sympathy for Jenne. It is people like this that have cause this mania and caused it to continue. Sorry for the sanctimony. I guess I've earned it after being so wrong about this stock for so long (but, as Glenn has pointed out time and again, not wrong about the company). We both earned it. Glenn

To: Peter Bernhardt who wrote (33834)	1/9/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 9 ABC Gets Pushed Aside By CBS AOL announced a new broadcast deal with CBS this week, displacing ABC as AOL's exclusive broadcast network content partner. Though the economics of the deal were not disclosed, it is widely understood that little to no money has changed hands (in either the ABC deal or the current CBS deal), but rather “economic value” was traded in the form of on-air promotions and branding (for AOL), and CBS will share advertising revenue generated through areas on the AOL brands incorporating CBS NEWS programming. The near term benefits to AOL seem to be a greater “fit” with CBS' core demographic (older consumers) coupled with CBS' current #2 position in the ratings wars, over #3 ABC. As well, the new CBS deal removes a potential conflict resulting from the launch of go.com, a Disney/Infoseek property. ABC's content could not feasibly be used at two portals at the same time, of course. Amazon $250mm And 1MM New Customers Later… Amazon “pre-announced” their Q4 early this week, demolishing our December quarter revenue estimate (once again) and, as importantly, adding more than 1mm new customers too their roster of online consumers. Amazon recorded more than $250 million in December quarter revenue, up from the $153 million they posted in the September quarter (a 63% sequential rise). Thats a $1 billion revenue run rate after only 3 * years in business. We defy readers to find another retailer that has grown this large this fast. Highlights from Amazon's announcement include: nice International sales growth; the addition of 1mm new customers from November 17 th to December Dec. 31 (for those keeping track, that's 1mm new customers in 45 days, or 22,000 new customers per day on average, 1,000 new customers per day better than AOL's subscriber add rate for Q4); more than 7.5 million items shipped, greater than those shipped from Amazon in all of 1997; and peak shopping of more than $6 million per day. That said (and consistent with Amazon's earlier suggestions, the company doesn't plan on sending much (if any) of this revenue surprise to the bottom line in the form of smaller losses. Though a penny or two of upside to our Q4 EPS estimate of ($0.53) is possible, lower gross margins (probably sequentially lower than the 22.7% experienced in Q3 and versus our 22.9% Q4 estimate) should keep a lid on the bottom line number. Aggressive product pricing, fulfillment costs, and customer service all raised costs in Q4, it seems. We anxiously await details behind Amazon's amazing strength when they report on January 26 th . New Nevada Fulfillment Facility Amazon also announced that they are opening a new distribution facility in Nevada to meet this fantastic growth, keep fulfillment costs low and customer service levels high. Amazon anticipates that it will reduce standard shipping times to key markets in the western United States by a full day. With some 322k square feet of capacity, the available titles to be shipped within 24 hours increases significantly. Important markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Phoenix, and Houston will likely receive orders much more quickly (and cheaply to Amazon) than before. Amazon expects the center to employ by year's end more than 300 people. This marks Amazon's second major regionally targeted facility, joining a 202k square foot center in Delaware and the original Seattle-based facility (93k square feet). Wal-Mart Law suit Moved To Washington Wal-Mart filed their original suit against Amazon.com in Washington state this week

To: Peter Bernhardt who wrote (33834)	1/9/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 15 Well, it was nice to see that the Wall Street Journal is starting to recognize the same idea; Monday's (1/4/99) front page far right column carried an excellent description of just our point. We encourage readers to check it out on the Web at www.wsj.com. Froth Watch, or “How Even Fleas Can Get To Mt. Olympus In Zeus' Mane” The last few weeks have produced some of the best Froth Watch yet; in point of fact, there was almost too much froth to watch, prompting one of us in the Internet research group to ask: are we at Starbucks or at the NASD? Regular Capitalist readers will recall that the purpose of Froth Watch is to highlight what we believe to be excellent indicators of the indiscriminate shareholder value allocation that this market has been practicing in this sector. We do this not to draw over-generalized conclusions about when to trade these stocks (for that please consult your local crystal ball), but rather to give weight to our operating principle that investors should steer way clear of tertiary (and beyond) “plays” on the Internet. Buying the best properties out there (the AMZNs, the AOLs, the YHOOs, etc) will provide more upside potential and downside protection (remember when that quaint idea was a concern?) than finding the next .com to skyrocket on a press release. We also do it because their charts are a real gas. That said, on with the froth… TMAN Global.com (FSGI). The stock of this two-year old “Internet-based” company (an operator of martial arts Web sites) went from less than $1 to north of $5 per share this week on news that it had joined the associate program at Amazon.com. The last time we looked, becoming an Amazon associate was, well, not very hard. In fact, it's free and offers no up-front economics whatsoever. Internet America (GEEK). Recalling the days of the traveling circus geek, this Internet service provider (ISP) went from $15 to $60 in the span of two days on news that, well…there was no news at all, making this stock perhaps the perfect Froth Watch specimen. Multiple Zones (MZON), the direct marketer of computer products, launched a Web auction site on its online store and the stock went from $10 to $60 in the span of three trading days. Skymall (SKYM), that omnipresent (and, we guess, now omnipotent) owner of that in-flight catalog in back of the seat in front of you, had its stock rise from $4 to $48 in the span two days after the company announced that it expected 1998 Internet sales to be up by about 600 percent (of course, that was from a $300k base). Delia's (DLIA), the self-described leading marketer of apparels and accessories to "Generation Y," (defined as consumers ages 10 to 24, mostly women), had its stock rise from $9 to $30 on its announcement that it was opening up a store on Yahoo!. Unlike many of the other Froth Watch candidates above, the management team at Delias has apparently been watching CNBC. They knew that in order to sustain their newfound capitalization, they would have to make a substantial announcement at some point. Lo and behold, Delias plans on taking its yet-to-be built online store public sometime soon. Sel-Leb Marketing (SELB), the had its stock rise from $2 to $11 after announcing a new financing agreement with Merrill Lynch that will help it launch a Web site that will sell cosmetics. We had plenty more folks, but, because we want to remain optimists about the industry in which we daily toil, we'll end there. If you've