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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (3569)	1/9/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Respond to of 99985

Bobby, You're right. There are many divergences. A few weeks ago when I called for a breakout or broadening of the markets my call was not based on what was already apparent. Instead I took a very close look at those lagging indices and especially the stocks that make up those averages and asked myself "Am I seeing strength or weakness in these areas?" I looked at what the insiders in those companies were doing. The answer that I came up with was things were improving. I agree with you that you have to look at the big picture when trying to make this call. A rally like this that doesn't have broad market participation will surely fail. So I ask you - don't you think the landscape today is better than a few short weeks ago? And if that true, lets take a look at the charts of those companies that are beginning to move and ask ourselves - what am I seeing strength or weakness? I follow this path because I believe the charts of those companies are a much better gauge of where this market is going. If they start to rollover the averages will surely follow. You're points are all valid. They make me take a harder look at my own. Regarding the EURO, you are right again, the US$ is no longer the only game in town. I'm sure over time it will play a big role in world business. However, its always wise to question the reasons for these countries to come together this way. Are they feeling secure or insecure with their abilities to compete with other parts of the world? There's little doubt that their citizens will want take advantage of the technology thats sweeping the world. I ask you who's better positioned to sell it to them? Too many questions and not enough answers. Great weekend. SO

To: bobby beara who wrote (3569)	1/9/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

BB: IMO, The A/D line WILL break the downtrend. I have no doubt about that. Whether it comes at the absolute price peak in the indexes and then reverses or occurs on the 2ndary bounce before the crash in the indexes and then reverses is the only question in my mind. The 2ndary bounce seems the more likely candidate since so many are now following this indicator (since it foretold of this Summer's decline) and thus the mkt will screw the maximum number of people as they go long thinking things could never be more bullish just before the crash. :)