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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Mansfield who wrote (3209)1/9/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 9818
 
LOL!! 'Y2K in Switzerland, follow-up report: On the move

Article:
1 of 2
From:
R. Brunner <nobody@access.ch>
Subject:
Y2K in Switzerland, follow-up report: On the move
Date:
Sat, 09 Jan 1999 16:55:25 +0100

(Note: This is a follow-up to my first Usenet posting about Switzerland and Y2K from July 26, 1998 which is available
through Dejanews as dejanews.com or on my own website as
megos.ch )

In the upper left of the screen there is a digital clock running: It

shows 23:59:45, 1999-12-31: Only a few seconds to go until the new

millennium.

Houston Mission Control talks to the crew of the space shuttle

currently in orbit. The astronauts float in free-fall, wearing

carnival hats and blowing paper pipes, already celebrating New Year.

They look down from space to the North American continent where the

lights of the big cities are clearly visible.

The clock turns 00:00:00, 2000-01-01.

The shuttle crew watches in absolut amazement how in rapid succession

all over the continent the lights go out. A few seconds, and

everything is dark.

"Houston, do you read us? Do you have a problem?" No answer. The

radio link is dead.

Message on the screen: "Call us before it is to late. Swisscom"

The above is a partial description of the TV spot that was shown on Swiss National TV last October, repeatedly on prime
time, for about one month. Swisscom, the Swiss telecommunications giant was advertising its extensive Y2K project.
The company, once a somewhat cumbersome state- owned monopoly, has gained quite some flexibility after
privatization.

If you had asked me which Swiss company is likely to be at the leading edge of Y2K here, I am not sure which name I
would have given, but NOT Swisscom. Pleasant surprise, anyway. If power stays up I expect to have a dial tone here in
Switzerland in January 2000.

Take a look at 2000ok.ch

Quite interesting: Although the TV spot was downright "doomsday" style it did not cause much sensation. I guess the
people just accepted it as a fancy TV spot but not more. Oh well.

The "Rundschau" is a weekly 45-minutes news magazine on Swiss National TV, doing serious and well-respected
reporting about important political and economic developments in Switzerland. Last December 2 there was a 11-minute
report about different aspects of Y2K here.

This was quite an event regarding Y2K, after weeks or even months without coverage of the problem on Swiss TV and
also not much coming in from stations of neighboring countries.

Featured: Mr. 2000, Ulrich Grete (Swiss equivalent of Koskinen), holding together the various news pieces and giving
introductory informations; Y2K tests at SBB (national railways); Rollover test at a selected single power plant in the Alps,
one of the very first such tests (in DECEMBER 1998!), going flawlessly, only printed event logs mixed up with 1900
dates; Y2K problems with flight-tracking radar at the biggest Swiss airport Zurich-Kloten; and ... my own Y2K Diary.

Yes, I had my 3 minutes of fame on Swiss TV. Think of it, they let me go on air with an unmistakable remark that I will
withdraw all my money from bank accounts before the turn of the millennium!

Last September Bundesrat Villiger (our minister of finance) went public with an interesting announcement: The Swiss
government sees a certain danger that in January 2000 the all-important public services power, water, gas and
telecommunication might suffer at least temporary and regional breakdowns.

In order to minimize the possible impact of such breakdowns the governement starts to develop nation-wide contingency
plans, involving organisations like the "Zivilschutz" (civil protection service). Furthermore it will investigating what is the
best way to inform and educate the public about potential infrastructure problems in the wake of Y2K.

As far as I know no results of this initiative surfaced in the meantime.

Like with the Swisscom TV spot it was not only interesting to hear and read the informations themselves, but even more
fascinating to watch how the reaction of the Swiss public was CLOSE TO ZERO. Obviosly plain and simple no cause for
concern whatsoever that the government begins to talk about nationwide contingency plans for a New Year's Eve.

And now surprising news about one of several possible risks to the national power grid, according to the Y2K project
manager of the biggest Swiss power corporation: Assume that power is still up and enough people get scared about
massive problems with power that might damage electrical equipment, blow light bulbs etc. and simultaneously switch off
everything that consumes power just before midnight, 1999-31-12, what would happen?

Well, the sudden drop of consumption would lead to an increase in voltage in some parts of the grid which causes safety
switches in the distribution network to trip in order to prevent further increase and thus damage, which in turn increases
the voltage in other parts of the grid even more, which go offline as well, until the whole grid collapses.

Never thought about THAT particular Y2K problem, right? Take note: Don't dare to switch off the light a few seconds
before midnight, 1999-31-12, you might take down the power grid by doing so!

In summary I must say that there were a number of important developments regarding Y2K in Switzerland in the months
since my last post. As I see it, nowhere near what is REALLY needed, but nevertheless some good starts. In a few days
there will even be a "Y2K day" on Swiss National TV, with FOUR news broadcasts during afternoon and evening focussed
mainly on the problem.

Let us see whether the Swiss again just watch and say to themselves, well, entertaining and cute, this Year 2000 stuff,
and continue to munch pop-corn in their comfortable TV chairs.

Like Cory once said, sometimes you feel a strange urge to grab people and S-S-S-H-A-K-E them until they take notice.
But of course as a polite Swiss I would never really do such a thing.

-- R. Brunner, Megos AG
Author of the Y2K Diary (in German)
megos.ch



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3209)1/9/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
 
'I received from a reader named Mike the following reply to the
above entitled post. I'll give my reply afterwards -- Roleigh

****************************************************************

Roleigh;

I so appreciate receiving your emails and the essential service
you are providing to all of us.

Just a quick couple questions regarding this email, if you have
time.

Isn't "stockpiling" somewhat neccessary to prepare for the days
ahead? Doesn't everyone need to start putting some essential
items away now? I am thinking primarily of personal and
community preparations. It seems to me that there is a real
possibility that we will see food shortages in the year 2000, for
instance.

What is the solution to the problem of balancing the need to
prepare for the future and creating shortages now?

Thanks again

Mike

****************************************************************

Mike,

I agree stockpiling is essential to being able to weather
shortages in 2000. The earlier the stockpiling is done the
better. I think history will find that the biggest factor that
compounds the already tragic situation of Y2K will be JIT--Just
in Time inventory management. JIT, in my opinion, is based upon
the assumption that there will never be systemic, global
interruptions. Y2K is a subset of the class of numeric overflow
problems, which in a high technology world, are systemic, global
interruptions if they are used everywhere. Y2K is history's most
dramatic example of such a problem and won't be repeated on this
scale for quite some time but Dr. Stockton and Capers Jones give
future dates (see my that other numeric overflows are "scheduled"
to take place. See my Y2K reprint at
y2ktoday.com

Other events are unscheduled (such as the overflow of the Social
Security number, the 10 digit phone number in the USA, the Unix
operating system date field--this is dated though, etc.) The
next major, equivalent to Y2K event, will be around the year
3,600 when one of the every 2800 years exception to the leap year
takes place (see
ourworld.compuserve.com.

Because almost none of our corporations are promising to
overproduce in 1999 to make up for almost inevitable productivity
losses in 2000, the only way to stir these companies to
overproduce in 1999 is to place orders with them--the earlier the
better.

The downside to this advice is that once too many corporations go
over- board in stockpiling, shortages will take place in 1999
(rather than taking place in 2000 if nothing happened). The
upside is that shortages in 1999 are not true shortages--because
of stockpiling, extra production has taken place. A displacement
of the goods has occurred. Prices will rise and there will be an
incentive for stockpiled goods to be sold back to the market.
That, to me, is better than only a normal year's worth of
ordering going on in 1999 to be followed by a year of
production-shortages which in the area of essential goods would
cause immense tragedy to take place. However, for those
individuals and businesses that did not stock- pile early, they
have to pay the premium for the resold-at-higher-prices goods.
That is bad for such companies/individuals, but to me, that is
better than being in the position where such goods are not
available regardless of the price.

Stockpiling, therefore, is "bad" but not as bad as not
stockpiling. It is a necessary disadvantage that I believe we
are better off enduring. However, the earlier the stockpiling is
done, the earlier manufacturers in 1999 ramp up production and
that is very good, overall.

Does that answer your question? I hope I have made my position
clear.

--Roleigh



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3209)1/9/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
'Y2k and elderly

I am forwarding this post today--it was very good. -- Roleigh

|Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 18:27:36 -0800 (PST)
|From: Weatherman <y2kwman@yahoo.com>
|Subject: Y2kWatch: Risks to the Elderly
|To: Y2kWatch News <y2k-news@y2kwatch.com>
_________________________________________________________________________

*********************************************************
Y2kWatch News - Information for Education and Preparation
---------------------------------------------------------
Visit y2kwatch.com January 8,1998
*********************************************************

I am having LASIK eye surgery tomorrow morning at 8:45am central. I
appreciate your prayers. I hope to be posting to the 2kWatch News
next week if all goes well.

---

Dear Y2k Weatherman,

My family owns and operates two nursing homes here in Texas. We are
located about 3 hours east of Dallas in a very rural part of East
Texas. About 6 weeks ago we received a letter from TDHS (Texas
Department of Human Services) concerning Y2k. The letter stated that
we, as nursing home owners, had to be able to guarantee the safety and
well being of all of our residents regardless of whatever might happen
with Y2k. If we were not able to give this guarantee then we could
possibly lose our Medicare and Medicaid certification, i.e., NO MONEY!
Over 90% of of the revenue to operate our nursing homes comes through
these agencies.

When we did a little digging and calling around, we were told that we
should have around 6 months of food and water for our residents. 6
months of food and water for 100 little old people or face no payment
from the state?! We also learned that we could possibly experience a
2 to 4 month delay in vendor from the state. ("Vendor" are payments
we receive from government agencies.)

The State is being very careful to only "suggest" and not formally
request these guidelines. Were they to publish guidelines, they would
have to give some type of reimbursement to us for the extra
provisions, etc. That is the rub, money. To declare it would cost
too much money in reimbursement funds. Therefore, they are being VERY
careful to let us know that our certification is dependent on being
able to provide health and safety for these frail elderly. But that is
all they are saying.

We called Gov. Bush's office in Austin and asked for guidance. We
were handed off to an information committee or something. The people
there told me they were working with Bush and that he was going to use
the National Guard. We have had no further communication from the
state regarding Y2k, just that one broad "cover our behinder parts"
letter.

You can't tell me "they" don't KNOW something is going on. We called
our city manager only to find out that our county has no disaster
plan; therefore, we do not qualify for any FEMA funding. However,
since our nursing homes are listed as evacuation sites for the county
because we have a generator!

After meeting with our city manager and county disaster coordinator,
we realized that water was our most critical issue. We are drilling a
well on our property just to be safe, and an electrical engineer at
our church will help us with a solar pump. We have also started
storing rice and beans (when combined they provide a complete
protein).

We bought six 20 gal. propane tanks to use with portable heaters in
our halls after reading your newsletter on propane heaters. Thanks so
much. We have are having 1000 gal. of additional propane stored at
the facility and the gas company is going to make us some fittings to
refill the smaller tanks. After talking with TDHS Region 5, we are
reasonably sure we are the only nursing home making any preparation.

We too are believers and servers of the Lord our God, for it was He
who called us to take care of His elderly. However, we are a small
family owned organization, and although we work there as a team we
certainly don't have the resources to care for 100 elderly people
unless their expenses are covered by Medicare and Medicaid as they
normally are.

Thanks for the Y2kWatch News reports. We know that is pitiful little
to say in the face of all your effort, but most importantly the Father
we both serve is "well pleased."

Signed,

Preparing for the Elderly
in East Texas

---

I spoke on the phone for about 20 minutes with the folks in east Texas
who sent me this email. This family has really been a key player in
helping alert community and county officials to the importance of Y2k.
They have made great progress by making some phone calls and
networking with other people. If you have an elderly parent or
relative who is not prepared for Y2k, you cannot depend on the
government to care for them. It is your responsiblity to help them
prepare.

Our culture has little respect for the elderly, and that is a shame.
We may be seeking the widsom from those who survived the 1930's
depression before too long.

The Y2k Weatherman
©1998 by Y2kWatch.com
==
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+ Are you ready for Y2k? Visit y2kwatch.com +
+ Let us prepare to serve, not just prepare to survive! +
+ Ezekiel 3:17, 1 Timothy 5:8, Romans 8:28 +
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
_________________________________________________________________________
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roleigh Martin ourworld.compuserve.com
( easy to remember alias is: webalias.com )
(A Web Site that focuses on Y2k threat to Utilities, Banks & more)
To subscribe to free e-letter, fill in the form at the bottom of the page:
ourworld.compuserve.com
To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe" message to
roleigh_for_web-unsubscribe@egroups.com
Print out this Y2K brochure to give to your neighbors, friends & relatives:
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