To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (8923 ) 1/10/1999 1:20:00 AM From: pat mudge Respond to of 18016
Earnings may set the tone for the week: <<< Saturday, January 09, 1999 THE WEEK AHEAD: Pivotal earnings on horizon By Larry Barrett January 8, 1999 5:38pm ZDII Veteran traders will tell you that every earnings period is critical, but few would argue that next week's earnings carry more significance than usual. With the Dow perched at an all-time high, edgy investors could use some reassurance. Most likely, they will get the positive reinforcement they crave. Blue-chip companies such as Intel, Motorola, and Apple Computer will join upstart Yahoo! in releasing their earnings next week. So far, all signs point to solid sales and earnings for each company. It's impressive enough to see the Dow sitting at a record high of 9,600 and change when just over three months ago it was floundering at 7,400. The Nasdaq's run-up has been even more shocking, fueled by unbelievable gains from Internet stocks and the predictably strong moves made by hardware and software companies following the holiday shopping season. "This is purely a liquidity-driven market," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "There's very strong cash flow into deferred compensation and pension plans, and the managers of that money don't want to hold cash for more than 30 seconds. They just are shoveling the money into the market." After sliding more than 115 points in early trading Thursday, the Dow stormed up more than 200 points in the little more than a day of trading. Clearly, the bulls have taken this market to another level. "You keep looking for reasons to sell stocks but they don't exist," said Don Collier, an analyst at ProLytix Corp. "And if this next round of earnings meet or beat expectations, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow over 10,000 at this time next week." Whether this unprecedented growth will continue—-at least for the short run—-depends on these key earnings announcements. Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), once written off for dead, is back in a big way. First Call consensus expects it to earn 23 cents a share in its fourth quarter, a figure that company officials are quite comfortable with. It's hard to believe this stock was trading below $40 a share in October. On Friday, it closed within a whisker of its 52-week high at 69 5/8. In the year-ago quarter, it made $321 million, or 53 cents a share, on sales of $8.2 million. After some hand-wringing earlier this year, the investment community has finally rallied around the chipmaker. Twenty-two of the 33 analysts covering the stock maintain either a "buy" or "strong buy" recommendation. Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) should easily meet or top its fourth quarter estimate of $1.07 a share next week. Analysts concede the world's largest chipmaker is growing its revenue and improving its profit margins at a healthy click while the industry sorts out its capacity issues. Also, Intel's set to debut its Pentium III processor which should bolster its high-end, high-margin product sales. Last quarter, Intel raked in $1.55 billion, or 89 cents a share, on sales of $6.7 billion. Its shares closed up 13/16 to 130 1/16 Friday. Then there's Apple Computer Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL). With its cool rainbow-colored iMacs and strong-selling G3 PCs, Apple's revival appears to be complete. Its shares closed unchanged at a 52-week high of 45 Friday. First Call consensus expects it to earn 69 cents a share in its first quarter, slightly better than the $106 million, or 68 cents a share, it made last quarter when it blew away analysts' estimates. Finally, there's Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO), perhaps the most amazing stock story of the past 10 years. On Friday, it closed up another 23 5/8 to an all-time high of 343 5/8. Wow. First Call consensus expects it to post a profit of 16 cents a share in its fourth quarter, but most analysts are expecting something closer to 20 cents a share. If, for some reason, Yahoo! were to miss or simply match the First Call numbers, we might see the beginning of the end of the Internet stock madness. But if they do top the estimate, expect the stock to soar well above $400 a share by week's end. >>>>