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To: Larry S. who wrote (18356)	1/9/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Respond to of 53068

You didn't read my post. I SAID HYPE....LOVE AFFAIR.

To: Larry S. who wrote (18356)	1/9/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Respond to of 53068

>>>the yhoos, csco, aol, seek, lcos, inkt, etc, are going to be huger companies.<<<< They are in good postions to become larger, but you are speculating and that is very risky. No doubt the Internet is the Paradigm for the 21st century - distribution, etc.... I like tracking new trends & shifts: Subject 23995

To: Larry S. who wrote (18356)	1/9/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Internet stocks. Larry, I completely agree that the Internet is causing a paradigm shift in how we communicate. It might even be on the order of how much radio and television changed the way we communicate and purchase products. However, nobody knows how big the Internet will become, how much money these companies will make, what their growth rates will be, who will survive and who won't, etc. In a nutshell, the business model for Internet companies is a big mystery and nobody knows how to value them. The only exceptions might be AOL and NSCP because they have been around long enough to have established a model that one can rely on. While the stock market is a gamble no matter what you trade, the Internet stocks are even more of a gamble because nobody understands their business model well enough to come up with reasonable valuation models. IMO, stocks like AMZN, YHOO, SEEK, LCOS, and others are trading at valuations that can only be supported by huge earnings in the next couple of years. If investors decide one day that these huge earnings won't come, look out below. How much does a company have to earn and at what growth rate to justify a market capitalization of $25 billion (AMZN) or $34 billion (YHOO) or $1.7 billion (SEEK), etc...? The Internet is not a hoax and is very big. But you can't assume that these companies are worth as much as the market is placing on them today. Stock prices go up and down every second and I personally don't believe that the future earnings at AMZN, YHOO, SEEK, and others justify their current valuations, especially given the risk and likely margin of error in guessing how much money they will ever make. Dan