To: Dan Woodbury who wrote (33903 ) 1/9/1999 7:49:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 10 after a judge ruled that his court did not have jurisdiction to try all the defendants. We bring this up only to highlight what we continue to believe is an under-appreciated risk to the Amazon story; even if patently frivolous (and we tend to believe its not far from such a judgment) Wal-Mart's lawsuit could tap Amazon of the one indispensable thing that they need; management's concentration. We certainly hope it doesn't come to that, but we never (especially these days) underestimate the ability of a lawsuit to remain a viable and prickly thorn. DoubleClick Demystifying DoubleClick Just before the holidays, we had the opportunity to visit with DoubleClick's management team, Kevin O'Connor (CEO), Kevin Ryan (President) and Jeff Epstein (CFO). Although they were fresh off their secondary offering roadshow and company holiday party (complete with executive break dancing that we're sure was Terrio-like in its smoothness), we spent some time investigating the fundamentals behind DCLK, which remain quite strong. While this company has impressed us for some time, we are fully aware of the confusion that can surround their story. Buy-side institutions have been grappling with an effort to “fit” DoubleClick into a mold they can more easily understand. Is it an ad agency? Are they a direct marketer? Are they and advertising technology concern? We are in production with a more complete report on what the future holds for DCLK where we will attempt to answer these questions. In the meantime, below are some highlights from our meeting. On how big an opportunity DoubleClick has before them: At its core, DCLK delivers advertising on the Internet. Planning, buying and delivering advertising on the Internet can be a time, labor and cost intensive process for an advertiser (and its ad agency) By providing a delivery platform that has gained acceptance from sites and advertisers, DoubleClick is positioning itself to eventually become, in effect, the operating system for ad delivery over the Internet. How many delivery platforms will there be? At most two or three. Will DoubleClick be one of them? You bet. And since Internet advertising is going to be generating something like $10 billion in a few years, and since impression delivery fees run to 5-7% of the ad dollars spent, that's an enormous potential bucket of revenue. Having said that, we believe that the greatest shareholder value accrues not to ownership of the ad serving technology per se (thought that will most certainly be DCLK's driver in the near term), but rather, owning the advertising data that is generated by the technology. Long term, we suspect DoubleClick's core corporate asset will be the data accrued from years of ad serving success. The fundamentals behind and DoubleClick's execution against the DoubleClick Network business (where they represent content sites who don't want to sell their own advertising) remain particularly strong. We like to remind ourselves often why this is such a unique and valuable position; last year, portals represented 15% of Internet traffic, yet cashed in on 59% of the ad dollars. Thus, the sites that represented the majority (85%) of the traffic on the Internet had to fight over the remaining 41% ad revenue. DoubleClick provides this ad sales force via its network business, today the majority of DCLK's revenue. With time, as Internet advertising matures, we suspect that the balance of power will shift more toward the smaller sites whose ability (thanks to DART and the Network business) to target ad impressions will grow. On the international front, investment remains heavy. because, as management states, they always wished they'd spent more heavily when