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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (3636)	1/10/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: Islander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19700

Valuation? AMZN vs. Wal-Mart, Cramer's view, pretty compelling: Amazon's Glass Is Half-Full -- and Rising By James J. Cramer 1/6/99 1:23 PM ET Let's get out the back of the envelope. At the pace of Amazon's (AMZN:Nasdaq) fourth quarter, the company could do a billion in sales. Amazon's market capitalization is now $22 billion. Are we paying too much for that revenue? As long as I have been in the business, the benchmark for retailing was Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE). When Wal-Mart hit a billion in revenue in 1980, its market cap was $2.3 billion. By that benchmark, Amazon is hideously overvalued -- 10 times so. Where was Wal-Mart when it had Amazon's market cap? That's even more telling: In 1987, the greatest retailing story ever reached $22 billion in market cap. At that point, it had net income of $628 million! Amazon should lose $114 million. The only logical conclusion is that the market is way out of whack in how it values Amazon. Wrong! The only logical conclusion is that the comparison is meaningless and irrelevant. It would have been wrong for a massive amount of money. And it will remain wrong. A "skeptic" says that Amazon shouldn't be here based on the "rigorous" back-of-the-envelope comparison with Wal-Mart. But an opportunist says, Give me a break. Wal-Mart is a company with $183 billion in market cap that is burdened by pilferage, sales tax and inventory concerns. It has massive real-estate costs with all of the attendant costs: electric, insurance, health care, blah, blah, blah. Amazon is a company with a $22 billion market cap with none of those burdens. The opportunist says all of these comparisons are simply odious and misleading. Amazon is a retailer in name only; in fact, it is a distribution company with the potential for gross margins that would put Wal-Mart to shame if it executes. And right now, it is executing. That makes it worth taking the gamble. You only need one $22 billion market cap stock that goes to $183 billion to become very, very rich -- which, last I looked, was still the goal. Maybe you are paying too much for that ticket right now, but maybe not. We don't know which Net company will be a winner, but we do know that there will be winners. Right now, Amazon is looking like a winner. Or, to borrow an analogy from another tech business that many people were too skeptical about, had you put equal amounts of money in Software Pub, VisiCalc, Ashton-Tate and Microsoft in 1986, how much money would you have? Answer: a ton.

To: Gary105 who wrote (3636)	1/10/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Hands Off	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19700

GCTY 30% x $1.5B = 0.5B LCOS: 25% x $4B = 1.5B HLYW .06B So value exclusive of 12 companies = $1.6B Gary, isn't this $2.06B ?

To: Gary105 who wrote (3636)	1/10/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Miguel Octavio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19700

CMGI is worth 4.4 billion market cap today. Lycos is worth 18.5 million shares times $91= 1.68 billion, CMGI owns 25% or $420 million Geocities has 30.7 million shares and close at $54.8=1.68 billion, CMGI owns 32% or 537 million Hollywood Entertainment has 36.9 million shares and closed at $33.=1.2 billion so that CMGI has 33% or 400 million. Running total is 1.357 million $. Now it also has 100% of 10 other companies. Assume one home run (1 billion), one double (500 million) and the other eight an average of 100 million. (with consolidation coming in internet comapnies they could sell some of them for traffic etc, for good money). This gives 2.3 billion Running total 3.6 billion. CMGI also owns another 16 companies with an average ownership of 22%. assuming one home run two doubles and 13 hits this gives 726 million more or US$ 4.3 billion, very near the current market cap. But this is not its fair value. This leaves out the possibilities of a huge success with one of the companies ($ 5 billion)as well as the fact that funds from any IPO or sale would be put back into new investments and the company has proven that it knows how to pick them. Add a little internet mania and you could easily justify the company being valued at 10-15 billion today and much higher in three years. Miguel Octavio Caracas, Venezuela