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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (22136)	1/10/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213173

Earnings estimate Well, I thought I'd take a stab at an earnings estimate again this time around. I'll keep my predictions basic: Revenue: $1,675 million Units shipped: 990,000 Margin: 26.2% EPS diluted: .83 --- Revenue: I think the 520,000 or so iMacs shipped in Q1 ensure a good but not a shockingly good quarter. Units shipped: Jobs indirect statement of units shipped through his 8.5 sales figure suggests a unit shipment in the 1 million range. Margin: Having 50%+ of the unit shipment be made of iMacs (not to mention a G3 line at a fully-discounted, end-of-life stage) is bound to lower margins somewhat. On the other hand, good OS 8.5 sales will help out, and so will the idea mentioned by an analyst that Apple's prices don't seem to be dropping fast enough to keep pace with the dropping prices of components. i.e., an iMac is undoubtedly cheaper to make now than it was at the August introduction. EPS: Constituting an 18.57% upward surprise, earnings of .83 would continue the trend of dissipating upward surprises from the consensus estimate. <from Yahoo>: Q2: 137.5% surprise Q3: 56.25% surprise Q4: 38.78% surprise Q1: ? This would fit in with my theory that analysts aren't dumb, they're just a little slow. When a company makes a quick turnaround like Apple did, they are slow to react. However, they do eventually react. Did you know that this quarter is the first time in more than a year that consensus estimate came in higher than the previous quarter's earnings? i.e., this is the first quarter in some time that analysts actually predicted quarter-quarter earnings growth. Food for thought. . . Andrew