SUNDAY REVIEW / Korner's Review Of Canadian Markets & O&G Related (5)
CRUDE OIL
01/08 16:04 World Oil Pushes Higher As Long Supply Glut Eases
LONDON, Jan 8 - Oil prices crept higher on Friday as traders pondered whether recent gains spurred by falling crude stocks could turn into a fully fledged recovery.
World benchmark Brent pushed up 22 cents to end at $11.75 a barrel, over two dollars above 12-year lows recorded in late December.
The cautious upturn follows signs that a glut of unwanted oil that plagued producers all last year may at last be starting to ease.
Brent flew a dollar higher on Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute (API) said the United States had drained nearly 15 million barrels from its bulging crude stocks. The market also got a small fillip on Friday from forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that U.S. demand for petroleum would jump to an average 19.25 million barrels per day (bpd) --110,000 bpd higher than its forecast released last month, and 2.9 percent more than levels in 1998.
London's Energy Market Consultants (EMC) earlier said the year-on- year stock excess -- which peaked at about 200 million barrels in the summer -- fell to 70 million barrels at the end of December. Even assuming normal seasonal temperatures the surplus would be expected to fall below 50 million barrels by the end of the northern hemisphere winter, EMC said.
As spare supply wanes, sellers are starting to obtain higher prices on the day-to-day physical cargo market.
And improved prices for prompt delivery cargoes would in turn erase the economic incentive for companies to put oil into storage tanks.
This would be a sea change from the pattern that became entrenched last year when consistently weak near-term prices sent excess oil flooding to inventories.
Severe delays to exports from Nigeria, where pre-election protests are disrupting production, has further cut buyers' options.
Yet with stocks still 200 million barrels in surplus against the better balanced position of two years ago, prices are still vulnerable to further losses.
The lingering threat of oversupply means analysts are calling for additional price supporting measures by leading oil producers who have so far garnered little reward from pledged output cuts.
OPEC oil production rose to its highest in five months in December as a flagging campaign to revive oil revenues ran afoul of rising Iraqi exports.
Output from the cash-pressed cartel edged up by 20,000 barrels per day to 27.45 million bpd.
Taking account of higher Iraqi exports, net OPEC compliance with its 2.6 million bpd output cut package dived to less than 50 percent.
The group is due to meet in March for its first gathering since a tetchy November meeting when long-standing tensions between key players Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran scotched any agreement.
Kuwait has led calls for the group to convene an earlier meeting. But Venezuelan policy may not become clear until president-elect Hugo Chavez takes office on February 2.
01/08 16:41 NYMEX Crude Ends Down But Above $13
NEW YORK, Jan 8 - Front-month crude futures on New York Mercantile Exchange ended lower but above $13 a barrel Friday in light trade marked by sporadic profit taking, traders said.
The February crude contract settled at $13.07, down two cents, after last trading at $13.02. The contract has advanced $1.02 from last week, aided by a huge 15-million-barrel stockdraw in U.S. crude inventories reported on Tuesday and a technical breakout above $13 on Thursday.
In the afternoon Friday, February crude climbed to $13.25, equaling Thursday's high, but a push to move the market higher fizzled out, traders said.
However, support appeared intact just below $13, limiting the day's losses in the technically-driven session, they said. NYMEX crude's recent gains have been "mildly constructive," but the upward movement may be limited, said Hans Kashyap, president of Bethesda, Md.,-based Analytics Research Corp., which tracks the market's technical movements.
"I wouldn't be too optimistic, the upside is limited to about $14.50 a barrel in the next several weeks," he said. After that, prices would react back down to $12 to $11.50 and holdthere before heading up again, he said.
Heating oil futures ended the week with modest gains as latest weather forecasts showed that the arrival of warmer weather next week would be delayed, traders said. February heating oil settled at 36.11 cents a gallon, up 0.32 cent.It last traded at 36.05, beneath its session peak of 36.60 cents.
Gasoline futures were bearish as the day's low-volume business saw players selling the product and buying heating oil, traders said. February gasoline settled at 38.19 cents a gallon, down 0.67 cents after posting a last trade at trade at 38.10 cents, a touch above its session low of 38.00 cents. The contract hit a session high of 39.10 cents.
On top of the big drop in U.S. crude inventories, a report late Friday projecting a higher demand for petroleum products in the U.S. added to bullish sentiment. The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of theU.S. Department of Energy, said U.S. demand for petroleum would riseto an average of 19.25 million barels per day. That would be 110,000 bpd higher than its forecast in December and 2.9 percent higher than the level in 1998.
Earlier in the week, talk about a possible meeting among some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was supportive.
Kuwait said it was seeking a meeting ahead of the regular March meeting of OPEC, but it was not clear whether an early meeting could be held as the Venezuelan President-elect, Hugo Chavez, was to take office only on February 2.
OPEC heavyweights Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC producer Mexico spearheaded last year's agreements for producers to cut output by 3.1 million barrels per day. Of that total, OPEC pledged 2.6 million barrel.
But OPEC efforts have been undercut by rising Iraqi exports. Iraq, an OPEC member, is not part of the output-cut agreements. Under a U.N.- sponsored "oil-for-food" program, however, it is allowed to export a limited amount of oil to buy food, medicines and other necessities for Iraqi citizens.
-------------------CRUDE OIL-LIGHT SWEET--------------------- NYM - 1,000 bbl_dollars per bbl. CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE CHANGE HIGH LOW Feb 99 13.01 13.25 12.78 13.07 -.02 20.79 10.75 Mar 99 13.05 13.25 12.84 13.10 -.01 20.40 11.10 Apr 99 13.10 13.29 12.96 13.17 -.05 20.79 11.35 May 99 33.13 13.36 0.01 13.29 -.05 20.79 0.01 Jun 99 13.27 13.47 13.20 13.41 -.05 20.42 11.48 Jul 99 13.50 13.58 13.41 13.54 -.05 20.40 12.20 Aug 99 13.62 13.75 13.52 13.66 -.06 20.04 12.51 Sep 99 13.73 13.78 13.67 13.78 -.07 20.33 12.76 Oct 99 13.79 13.90 13.79 13.90 -.08 20.14 12.97 Nov 99 13.86 14.03 13.86 14.03 -.09 20.60 13.17 Dec 99 14.05 14.26 14.05 14.16 -.10 20.34 13.37 Feb 00 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 -.10 20.16 13.78 Jun 00 15.00 15.00 14.85 14.85 -.13 20.34 14.41 Dec 00 15.50 15.55 15.46 15.48 -.16 20.10 15.19 Feb 01 15.70 15.70 15.64 15.64 -.17 17.37 15.41 Est. Sales 122560
-------------------------HEATING OIL------------------------- NYM - 42,000 gal_cents per gal CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE CHANGE HIGH LOW Feb 99 35.75 36.60 35.35 36.11 +.32 58.50 32.40 Mar 99 36.30 37.00 35.90 36.58 +.24 58.81 33.10 Apr 99 36.60 37.10 36.30 36.83 +.24 59.00 33.70 May 99 36.75 37.20 36.70 37.13 +.24 54.56 34.30 Jun 99 37.50 37.68 37.25 37.68 +.24 52.75 35.05 Jul 99 38.05 38.43 38.05 38.43 +.24 52.90 35.85 Aug 99 39.10 39.30 39.10 39.18 +.19 50.55 36.70 Sep 99 39.60 39.98 39.60 39.98 +.14 52.00 37.60 Oct 99 40.75 40.78 40.59 40.78 +.09 52.00 38.45 Nov 99 41.50 41.58 41.50 41.58 +.04 52.44 39.34 Dec 99 42.10 42.50 41.95 42.43 +.04 52.70 40.20 Jun 00 42.25 42.53 42.25 42.53 -.01 42.85 42.25 Jul 00 42.80 43.03 42.80 43.03 -.01 43.03 42.80 Est. Sales 30536
------------------------UNLEADED GAS-------------------------- NYM - 42,000 gal_cents per gal CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE CHANGE HIGH LOW Feb 99 38.00 39.10 38.00 38.19 -.67 52.75 34.10 Mar 99 39.40 40.15 39.30 39.45 -.43 52.30 35.60 Apr 99 42.25 42.70 42.10 42.26 -.32 55.00 38.70 May 99 43.20 43.70 43.03 43.03 -.30 55.83 39.90 Jun 99 43.50 43.75 43.50 43.55 -.28 54.70 40.70 Jul 99 44.00 44.25 43.80 43.80 -.33 52.60 41.20 Est. Sales 25747
01/08 16:57 U.S. Cash Crude - Afternoon Trade Light, Steady
NEW YORK, Jan 8 - The U.S. cash crude grades were mixed on Friday as the futures market dipped only two cents to settle at $13.07 per barrel after rising as high as $13.25 earlier in the day.
In a flurry of activity on Friday morning, both major Louisiana grades strengthened but by the afternoon had settled back to less modest gains. At close on Friday, both were up three cents from Thursday.
The strength of Louisiana Light Sweet/St. James and Heavy Louisiana Sweet/Empire were said to be caused by the slackening of West African crudes coming to the U.S. Gulf and the relative strength of Dated Brent.
Traders said they had heard of no Brent deals on Friday to the U.S. Gulf. Cash West Texas Intermediate delivered in February at Cushing, Oklahoma was basically unchanged as the value of the front month February futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost only two cents to down slightly as a result of the two-cent drop to $13.07.
The March contract settled down one penny to $13.10 per barrel. At the opening bell on Monday, the February NYMEX contract was at $12.05 per barrel. This means the NYMEX front-month contract $1.02.
On Friday, Royal Dutch/Shell <RD.AS> <SHEL.L> said it was still planning maintenance work on its Nigerian Forcados crude export terminal from February 6-16 despite delayed January shipments.
Strong refiner buying helped Light Louisiana Sweet/St. James rise six to seven cents in value in relation to the benchmark WTI/Cushing in the morning. LLS was done as strong as 5 cents over the WTI/Cushing. It was also done at even, 2 cents and 3 cents over the benchmark. By the end of the day, it was pegged at minus 3 to plus 2 cents to WTI/Cushing.
Its sister grade Heavy Louisiana Sweet/Empire was done in the morning at minus 15 cents to the benchmark. West Texas Sour/Midland was pegged at -$1.05/$1.02, up two cents;West Texas Intermediate/Midland at -19/-17 cents, unchanged; EugeneIsland -$1.11/-$1.05, up three cents; and the February/March roll -4/-2, down two cents.
01/08 17:49 U.S. Cash Products-Kerosene Keeps Climbing, Jet-54Holds
NEW YORK, Jan 8 Kerosene continued marching higher Friday afternoon on demand for blending into low sulphur diesel and heating oil, amid cold weather in the Midwest and Northeast, and a lack of Russian gas oil in the top consuming New York Harbor, market traders said.
Jet 55 grade or kerosene, "is up across the board...and should stay firm as long as we continue to see the colder weather," a Gulf Coast trader said.
Russian gas oil cargoes had arrived steadily into the Harbor throughout November and December, but only one cargo is water bound at the moment, and not due to arrive in the hub until January 1 traders said.
That cargo will quickly be swallowed by short positions in the market spurred by the recent cold weather, traders said.
Meanwhile, New York 54-grade jet fuel, which kero pulled up 1.50 cent in the morning, was content to hold those gains in theafternoon.
On NYMEX futures, February gasoline was the big loser closing at 38.19, down 0.67 cent. Crude oil futures dipped just two cents on profit taking, closing at $13.07 a barrel.
And heating oil closed higher on forecasts that warmer weather for next week would be delayed. Heat closed at 36.11 cents a gallon, for a gain of 0.32 cent.
NEW YORK HARBOR
Harbor 55-grade jet fuel continued to climb on blending demand, but airline-quality 54 grade jet fuel was content to hold morning gains, traders said.
Meanwhile, gasoline and heating oil differentials gained in quiet trade. Jet 55, or kerosene, traded a half penny higher at 3.75 and 4.00 cents premium to the heating oil screen as only one cargo of Russian gas oil was due for arrival in the Harbor. That cargo is not due until January 16, traders said. Jet 54-grade rose held its 1.50 cents gains to trade at 2.25 centspremium to heat screen.
Prompt heat traded slightly stronger at 0.20 cent discount to the Feb. screen.
Meanwhile low sulphur diesel lost recent gains and was pegged at 0.00/0.30 cent premium to the screen.
Prompt regular M5 gasoline was steady in thin trade at 2.10/1.95 cents under the screen. The premium V grade was pegged at 0.50/0.75 cents over the print. Reformulated regular A5 was pegged at 2.00/1.75 cents under February,and premium RFG at 0.75 cent under.
GULF COAST
The refining hub's focus was on jet-kerosene which rose up to a penny per gallon as cold weather spurred demand for the blending fuel.
The 55-grade was up to 2.00 cents over the print, pulling along the 54-grade by 25-50 points to a 0.50/0.60 premium.
But trade on the rest of the cash market was thin with differential sholding steady to a shade firmer except for conventional premium C- grade gasoline which extended its gains ahead of scheduling. The deadline on the front 2 cycle regular premium V-grade gasoline saw talk up to 3.00 cents regrade to the M-grade, up 25 to 50 points.
The prompt regular M-grade was just a shade firmer at a 4.10/4.00 cents discount from morning trade at 4.20 and 4.15, with the back 3 anys pegged at 5-10 point higher.
On the reformulated grades, regular A5 was pegged at a 3.50/3.25 cents discount and premium at 0.50 cents under the print. Prompt back 2 cycle heating oil was steady at 3.00/2.80 cents discount to the Feb. screen while low sulphur diesel was steady around a 2.00 cents discount.
MIDCONTINENT
Jet fuel edged up in Chicago as the cold weather supported demand for blending, spurring a bullish tone across the hubs, trader said.
But talk and trade was thin on Friday and the gains were largely notional.
"There was a lot of hype on the NYMEX and on the Chicago market during the week but people are relaxed today," a trader said.
Chicago jet fuel was pegged a quarter cent up at 1.75/2.005 cents over and Group at the high end of its range at 1.25 cent over. But trader said the cold weather was also putting a cap on Chicago gasoline demand and prices. Amid thin talk, differentials were pegged in a wide range at 2.50/2.00 cents discount to the print, dragging down low sulphur to 1.20/0.75 cent discount, traders said.
Group Three held steady, finding a floor after shaking off any remaining bullish impact of the week's early talk of Citgo's buying or the Capline shutdown -- low sulphur diesel at a 0.75/0.50 cent discount, gasoline at 2.50/2.25 cents under the screen and premium gasoline at a 3.25/3.50 cent regrade.
01/08 17:51 North Sea Brent - Feb Down 8 Cents In Late U.S.
NEW YORK, Jan 8 North Sea Brent was mixed in late trading Friday in the United States.
February Brent was eight cents weaker, at $11.67 a barrel, while March Brent was unchanged at $11.50 a barrel, traders said. The February futures contract on the International Petroleum Exchange settled at $11.75 earlier Friday.
Although no full cargoes of cash Brent traded on Friday, activity included 200 lots February cash Brent partial cargoes at $11.65, 200 lots at $11.67, 300 lots at $11.68 and 100 lots at $11.69.
Traders also said that 400 lots March cash Brent partial cargoes traded at $11.50 in the aftermarket.
The Brent February-March spread traded once at plus 15 cents and twice at plus 16 cents, traders said.
01/08 18:06 U.S. Foreign Crudes - Uncertainty MuddiesCusiana
NEW YORK, Jan 8 - Opinion is still mixed in the U.S. market for imported crudes on Friday whether the U.S. market would follow Europe's bull run.
"Will it follow? The (U.S. refining) margins don't really support chasing (Europe)," said one U.S.-based trader. "There is all kinds of 2 oil (heating oil)," the trader noted.
But other traders were more optimistic, and one refiner who had reportedly paid up a discount between $1.15 and $1.25 to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate for Cusiana, was heard offering out the Colombian sweet crude at an even steeper discount of $1.10 to $1.00 under WTI.
The hesitation was also apparent in the U.S. futures market.
The front month February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled two cents weaker at $13.07 after a volatile day. The NYMEX remained stubbornly in contango, meaning that prompt months were still trading at a discount to later months. A contango market indicates that supply of crude oil remains plentiful in the United States.
On London's International Petroleum Exchange, however, front-month February futures settled 20 cents higher. The IPE moved into backwardation on Thursday, with prompt contract fetching a premium to later contracts. That premium, indicating than a long entrenched oversupply may be over, widened out further on Friday, with February trading 25 cents higher than March.
LATAM -
COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA, ARGENTINA
-- A U.S. trader said on Friday that it had bought up all three cargoes of Cusiana that had been awarded earlier this week by Colombia's state-owned Ecopetrol and was offering them out around $1.00 to $1.10 under WTI.
Market talk put the prices at which the cargoes were awarded at between $1.20-1.25 under March WTI, although it was unclear which company received them and resold them to the trader at discount between minus $1.15-1.25. Bids on the cargoes, scheduled to load
February 5-9, 11-15, and 15-19 were due on Wednesday.
But sentiment for the light, sweet Colombian crude was mixed on Friday, as one trader said a late January cargo of Cusiana had been sold at minus $1.30.
-- Talk on Colombia's medium-heavy Cano Limon remained mostly thin. The grade remained valued at $2.45 under WTI, where the last deal was heard done. One seller of Cano valued the grade closer to minus$2.00.
-- Traders said February barrels of Venezuela's main sour crude, Mesa/Furrial were said to be on offer at WTI minus $2.45.
NORTH SEA, WEST AFRICAN
-- Volatile trading on the NYMEX, and continued strength in European markets narrowed the trans-Atlantic arbitrage, a good indicator of the profitability of bringing North Sea crudes into U.S. markets, to a mere $1.27 a barrel on Thursday.
Also deterring European imports are stronger prices for prompt, or Dated Brent, the international benchmark. Although no deals for prompt Brent were heard on Friday, traders said bids for Dated were as high as 10 cents under February Brent.
And as what U.S. traders were calling a "run" in European prices continued, it seemed even less likely that European demand would leave much crude for U.S. markets. -
- Earlier this week, two U.S. Gulf refiners bought up a cargo each of Brent scheduled for arrival in the U.S. February 18-20. Although the cargoes were initially thought to be part of a VLCC arriving in mid- February, traders said on Friday that the deal was more flexible, and could involve inventory or even other sweet grades. The Brent was sold at February WTI minus 65-55 cents.
-- West African differentials continued moving higher, but U.S. traders said activity here was not as busy as in Europe, where a late January cargo of Nigerian Qua Iboe was sold at 29 cents over Dated Brent. Other Nigerian light sweets are said to be valued at similar strong premiums. Bonny Light was said to be around plus 35 cents.
Some of the strength in West African crudes is a result of delays of two to three weeks at Shell's 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) Forcados terminal in Nigeria announced earlier this week.
IRAQI
-- Differentials for Iraq's sour Basrah Light surged higher on Friday, with talk of a deal at $2.20 under April WTI, another 10 cents stronger. Basrah is said to have strengthened by about 20-25 cents this week, as sour crudes are supported by continued production shut-ins in Canada, and waning U.S. production, traders said.
Most February barrels of Basrah have all been sold, and traders said bids for the Iraqi crude were currently around $2.00 under April WTI.
01/08 20:54 U.S. West Coast ANS Prices Up As New York Rises
LOS ANGELES, Jan 8 - Prices for U.S. West Coast waterborne crudes rose on Friday on the back of slight gains in benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude.
While the official discount for Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude remained steady at $1.95 a barrel under February WTI, one refiner said they had closed a deal on Friday to buy 180,000 barrels of ANS for February delivery at $1.82.
Traders said the sharply narrower discount of $1.82 reflected the small size of the shipment, which was well below the 300,000 barrels for a full cargo.
"You tend to get squeezed when it's not a full cargo," said one trader familiar with the deal.
One trader said a spate of refinery troubles on the West Coast had softened demand for ANS as those facilities cut back their consumption of crude.
On Friday, Chevron said it had closed an 80,000-bpd crude unit at its El Segundo, Calif. refinery for minor repairs. The unit was expected to be down for one or two days, a Chevron spokesman said.
Earlier in the week traders said Atlantic Richfield Co. (Arco) had shut down a hydrocracker at its Carson, Calif. refinery.
Outright prices for February ANS on the West Coast rose to $11.03/11.19 a barrel on Friday, compared with $10.96/11.12 on Thursday. Bids for February WTI rose seven cents a barrel to $13.03 a barrel.
In the broader markets, February crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) edged two cents lower in light trading marked by sporadic profit-taking, traders said.
The February crude contract settled at $13.07 a barrel. The contract has advanced $1.02 from last week, aided by a huge 15 million-barrel stock draw in crude in U.S. crude inventories reported on Tuesday.
01/09 05:15 US Product Outlook-Glut Welcomes Cold, Turnarounds
NEW YORK, Jan 4 - U.S. heating oil prices began the new year on a higher note, amid heavy snowstorms in the Midwest and freezing temperatures in the northeast, traders said on Monday.
But traders did not expect the rally on the differentials to the New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures to hold as the mercury was expected to rise again while inventories were expected to rise again, unless refiners cut output amid weak margins and heavy seasonal plant turnarounds.
"It (the rally) won't hold. Heating oil will come down on its differential basis but it will be higher on its NYMEX basis on a technical correction," a Gulf Coast market source said.
While the February heating oil contract settled 0.86 cent per gallon higher on Monday at 35.14 cents, prompt cash supplies were trading around half a cent higher on its differentials in the Gulf Coast, New York Harbor and Chicago trading hubs due to the cold weather.
Heavy snow blanketed much of the U.S. Midwest on Saturday, hitting Chicago with its worst storm on record while a weaker secondary storm over the mid-Atlantic states near Washington, D.C., moved northeast depositing rain or freezing rain along the East Coast.
Arctic air masses will continue to build over northwestern Canada and move southeastward into the northern, central, and eastern US but a significant storm may track through the eastern Great Lakes late in the period, however, allowing a brief warmup over portions of the East, the Weather Services Corporation forecast.
"There will be a delayed reaction to the colder weather as its been so snowy, people can't take delivery yet," a Gulf Coast trader with a major oil company said.
"But there is still a lot of inventory and the market depends on how the weather goes," he added.
The American Petroleum Institute last week reported a bearish products build with distillates stocks rising 1.7 million barrels to 152.5 million in the week ending Dec. 25 or a hefty 21 million higher than a year ago.
"Stocks are still the highest in December for at least 11 years. Any stock build now is bearish, but especially this week, as market was expecting a draw due to Arctic weather.
No.2 stocks are still lapping at tank-tops," an analyst said.
The outlook for gasoline was also dampened by a similarly huge stock build of 1.7 million barrels to 211.4 million -- the the Gulf Coast alone responsible for 3.0 million of that build while the northeast however drew 1.2 million as the arbitrage from the southand Europe remained closed.
A glitch at Amerada Hess's 62,000 bpd catalytic cracker at Port Reading, N.J. around Christmas prompted the refiner to buy all grades of gasoline and provided the relatively "tighter" northeast with a prop, traders said.
But the glutted Gulf market ignored a fire at Exxon Corp's 37,000 barrel per day flexi-coker at Baytown, Texas on Dec. 30.
"We might see some holiday-driving pull, probably in the next week or two, then low-demand January will take over. Gasoline supply looks much, much more than "comfortable" especially with January coming up," an analyst said.
The only supportive factor for the oversupplied products market was "more downtime than usual" at U.S. refineries, traders said.
Among the refiners with turnarounds is independent Valero Corp (VLO.N) which has planned a major shutdown at its Corpus Christi, Texas refinery which produces around 117,000 barrels-per-day of gasoline and 35,000 bpd of distillates.
The plant will be closed January 9 to February 10 for works including increasing its 76,000 bpd heavy oil cracker capacity to 80.000 bpd.
"The turnarounds are due to the weak margins and the time of the year," said a trader with a refinery.
Refining margins for WTI on the Gulf Coast began the year on a weaker note, dropping below $1.00 per barrel in the red on Monday, compared to an average of $0.81 cents negative in December and $0.68 in November. Refinery runs according to the API were up 2.3 percent to 96.8 percent.
"The increase was mostly on the Gulf Coast, now said to be running at 100 percent. I now expect runs to continue near this level until the new year, when some early turnarounds and run cuts are likely unless refining margins improve," an analyst said. |