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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Islander who wrote (8929)	1/10/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

My problem with your analysis is REPRODUCABILITY. What does Amazon have that is not easily reproducible by any number of competitors? Microsoft's control of the operating system isn't even in the same ball park. Inherently Amazon is a distribution business with an innovative business model. It will attract plenty of competitors that will ensure that Amazon does not achieve more than a distribution margin for very long. Distributors sell at low Price/Sales ratios, etc. and I do not see any reason to say that THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT, which is the standard that always appears at the end of a bubble. I would add that in 30 years of investing I have seen many short squeezes, including the classic Resorts International one many years ago. Friday's action looked a lot like the top of these things. Time will tell whether it is or not.

To: Islander who wrote (8929)	1/10/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: Diamond Jim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

"Bob's got it wrong on the inflated valuations of the Net stocks" Are you really Tony from Brooklyn? Bob has very little wrong, Jake Plummer over Troy Aikman, yeah I think Bob's wrong on that, but do you realize how ridiculous the PE's on these internet stocks are?? They future can't and won't grow to equal a 1600 price to earnings ratio. Amazon doing 250 million and still losing money, they are like AMD, selling more product doesn't help if you are losing money per unit. I know AMD is now profitable, that was the case for quite some time though. Buying books and CD's over the web isn't high tech, their market cap is ridiculous. Bottom line, Bob is not wrong. jim