Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Societe Anonyme/No Pennies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TokyoMex who wrote (41352)	1/10/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 119973

Investors braced for a wild ride Ready for another week of share price records? For stock market investors the New Year could hardly have had a better start. Wall Street was in record-setting mood. The Dow Jones, benchmark index for the New York Stock Exchange, ended the week on an historic high of 9,643. Investors particularly liked technology stocks, pushing the high-tech heavy Nasdaq market to a new record of 2,344 points. European share markets performed less spectacularly, but there is little doubt that they were the trend setters. Enthusiasm over Europe's new single currency, the euro, triggered treble-digit gains in Frankfurt, Paris and Zurich. Even the euro-outsider London joined the fun, with the FTSE 100 index briefly hitting its highest mark ever during Friday's trading. Trend or trouble? So is this is a taste of things to come in '99 or will it all be downhill from here? The Federal Reserve, central bank of the United States, is clearly concerned that the current rally cannot be sustained. While investors celebrated Wall Street's records, the Fed's Vice-Chairman Alice Rivlin warned "that maybe the surge in stock prices is out of line with future (company) earnings". This is a faint echo of her boss's comments two years ago when the Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that the markets displayed an "irrational exuberance". His remark caused share prices to dip briefly, but soon they began to rise again. The Dow Jones has added another 3,400 points, or 54%, since then. There are a good reasons for the current rally: Europe is cheering the prospect that monetary union will unleash a new economic dynamism that will stir the continent's two big slow-growth economies, Germany and France. The US economy is still growing strongly, as company earnings defy the economic trouble in other parts of the world. Internet commerce has finally taken off, pushing up the price of many technology shares. Economic globalisation continues, forcing companies to seek partners and efficiencies. The resulting merger activity (and rumours) continue to drive up stock prices. Despite the roller-coaster ride of the world's share markets, investors remain convinced that shares are a good investment. As long as they continue to pump billions of dollars into mutual funds and other investment vehicles, share prices could stay high. But is this enough to sustain the market rally? Some analysts say no. They suggest that shares are overvalued, especially in the United States, by between 20% to 50%. Investment gurus like Abby Cohen of Goldman Sachs, who correctly predicted the mid-year downturn and end-of-year rally in 1998, have advised their clients to reduce the amount of shares in their investment portfolios. What can go wrong? The "bears" among the analysts believe that the world's stock markets are bound to plummet soon again and point to a whole raft of potential problems. Asia's financial mess still needs sorting out. Economic reforms have been slow to come and Japan's banking system could still collapse under a mountain of bad debt. Other emerging economies are still in trouble too. Hardly anybody holds out hope for the Russian economy. Brazil, however, is still teetering on the brink between recovery and collapse. If the IMF-guided reforms for Latin America's largest economy fail, the impact will be global. The economic trouble in Asia and other regions has already hurt the earnings of Western companies. If things get worse, share prices are bound to be hit. Currency markets are beginning to look shaky again. Nobody knows whether the euro will be able to hold steady while the dollar is on the slide. During the past five months the US currency has lost nearly 35% against the Japanese yen. Central to all these calculations is the state of the US economy. It has enjoyed strong growth rates since more than seven years now. New data show that it continues to outperform the rest of the world. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve's Alice Rivlin says that she expects the economy to slow down next year. If her prediction is correct, it could spell the end of the share price party. Volatility It is said that 10 analysts are bound to produce at least 11 opinions on how the stock market will develop. However, currently they can agree on at least one thing: investors should brace themselves for a wild ride. The first week of 1999 may have been typical. Sharp gains alternated with sharp losses on many markets. And there are several factors that will increase the pressure to mark down prices. Now that both investors and dealers are back from their Christmas holidays, they may be tempted to cash in some of the profits that have accumulated in their absence. Asia's stock markets have lagged behind other markets in recent weeks. If they continue to perform poorly they may spook investors in Europe and the US. President Clinton's political troubles could still frighten the markets. This coming week will test the strength of the current rally. On Thursday new economic data will show whether retail sales in the US have been holding up. Even more important is a string of company results. Chip-makers Intel and AMD, online-broker Charles Schwab, and Internet darlings Yahoo! and Inktomi will report their earnings and give an indication whether investors' confidence in technology shares has been justified. Another sector to watch out for are telecom shares. The markets are buzzing with rumours about link-ups between Vodafone and Airtouch, Cable & Wireless and Deutsche Telekom and possible deals involving Telecom Italia and France Telecom. All this may add to the froth of what many call the Internet share price bubble. Or it may prick it, dragging down other stocks as well. Whatever the outcome: Fasten your seatbelts, the share price roller coaster is about to depart. news.bbc.co.uk.

To: TokyoMex who wrote (41352)	1/10/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Dr. Stoxx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 119973

Yes, I am one of the lucky PhD's in Philosophy to be employed fulltime in academia. And I married my squeeze. From Edinburgh. PS: all this publicity has me curious to know more about your subscriber service. I've read your mission statement, but still am not clear what members receive. Sounds like there is a chat room with live alerts. Are there also nightly emails? Entries and exits? PPS (and FWIW): on my Befriend the Trend thread (mostly longs, mostly big caps) we are going long on AMR (just broke through resistance) and NETA (on resumption of trend after pullback). TC.