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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (19257)	1/10/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68156

Hi Jim, It depends on the company, but for the telcom equipment suppliers usually this quarter or the next are the strongest. It has to do with the telcos using up their budgets for the year. Each company has a different fiscal year end, but the key points is that if they don't spend their equipment budgets, they lose it for subsequent years. It doesn't make sense to normal people, but it is the spend it or lose it mentality. It is a lot like government budgets. For international suppliers summer is a slow period due to the one month holiday in Europe and the general lack of availability of people to make descisions as key people may be on vacation. It looks like CSCO has shifted the focus to cable temporarily as a result of the CES show. ADCT and TLAB should benefit from this due to their cable telephony products. Suppliers to cable such as ORTL popped last week too. Careful with this one though. International sales are still weak as far as I know from the last conference call. HLIT might be worth a look. ADCT is running on take over speculation and its alliance with CSCO on some products. It is fully valued for the year at 42 by my model. The last analyst to upgrade had a target of 34. With the lack of news it should peak either around ADTN earnings next week or around the NT/LU/ComNet period. It reported early so don't expect any earnings related moves for another 2 months. In general I expect NT to have a good quarter, It should not matter what LU reports. The accounting change messes things up. They just need good forward looking statements. Let me know what you do with the neural net. I worked on a voice recognition product a few years back so I have a general interest in the area. We used dynamic time warping as our pattern recognition back end back then though. Neural nets were just starting to emerge out of the Lab at that time. From what I can remember .the number of nodes and the type of training data will determine how quickly the neural net converges to a set of weighs that will give you some sort of usable pattern recognition. The actual non-linear functions of each of the nodes determines how robust the system is to change and to the loss of a node. If I remember right you need quite a few nodes to get anything usable. I saw a lot of work on simulations back then. I only remember one company presenting actual hardware at a conference. . Harry