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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Societe Anonyme/No Pennies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug T. who wrote (41367)	1/10/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 119973

Jan 07, 1999 Will Technolgy Stock's Start to Move Down? To get The Internet Financial Connection newsletter e-mailed to you for FREE, send an e-mail to ifc-request@mLists.net and write "subscribe" in the body of the letter. The last time I made a prediction about the direction of technology stocks was back in August of 98'. During the first wave of the technology sell-off, the NASDAQ Composite was at 1780. I had anticipated that the Technology Indexes, which include the NASDAQ Composite and the Morgan Stanley HI Tech Index (MSH) would break out to new highs by the end of 1998. A feat of which I was criticized by a few emails sent to me by readers saying, "Your crazy, the NASDAQ Composite will never go near that by the end of 98'". Well, the NASDAQ Composite barely touched my target of 2200 in 1998 and blew through my target of 720 for the MSH. The technology stocks have sprung to life as Microsoft, Dell, Intel, and Cisco lead the charge. Microsoft's market cap is about $35 billion larger than General Electric's. Let's look at Microsoft's earnings. They are expected to earn $2.35 in the June quarter of 99' and $2.81 in 2000. Microsoft always exceeds earnings estimates and for some reason, I think that will continue. let's just suppose Microsoft will earn $3.50 for fiscal year June of 00', instead of the $2.81 estimate. Going forward, that will give them a PE ratio of about 43, given their current stock price is around $150. Microsoft typically trades from 45 to 65 times forward earnings. So, their stock may have some upside left in 99'. If I add 30% on to the other stocks forward earnings estimates, which include; Dell, Intel and Cisco, I come up with PE ratios of 39, 24 and 42, respectively going forward. Many investors think they can beat the market by buying and selling stocks The reason why I added 30% onto each earnings estimate was to give a real world illustration of what PE multiples they are trading at. Historically, they tend to beat earnings estimates. Despite the fact that their PE multiple may look a little lofty, they are not trading a excessively lofty valuations to prior PE multiples. A couple of earnings surprises (on the positive side) and those stocks could possibly move 20% or more higher in the short term, even though they have all recently risen significantly. The reason why I am picking on the large cap technology names is because they are the ones that are pushing the Technology Indexes higher. All of those stocks could and most likely will go higher during the next 2 to 3 weeks, I am currently issuing a yellow signal on technology stocks in general. This means that you may want to hold off from purchasing technology stocks until a correction happens. If you do decide to buy shares of technology stocks, use caution! I think the NASDAQ Composite could realistically push up into the 2600 to 2700 range, within the next 6 weeks as investors rush in and push them higher. If the NASDAQ touches the 2600 to 2700 area, it should drift sideways to lower as the buyers of those technology stocks evaluate, reassess and ask, "have these stocks run up too fast?" What's classic about technology stocks is that they can move up and down, sometimes in sharp swings This is not a sell signal for technology stocks. Even if it was, investors must consider the consequences of capital gains taxes, tax brackets... etc. Many investors think they can beat the market by buying and selling stocks (trading), hoping to make more money. In most cases, the opposite is true. After capital gains taxes, commissions and bad timing, more money is usually made by buying and simply holding stocks. Warren Buffet is famous for his approach by simply buying and holding solid companies for long periods of time. What's classic about technology stocks is that they can move up and down, sometimes in sharp swings. People that buy these stocks sometimes quickly sell them after purchasing them because they get frightened of their volatility. They buy them back after they start to go back up. This is a classic mistake that many investors make and I have done the same in the past. Many investors tend to buy stock in technology companies that they know little about or simply do not understand. They feel good when it goes up, but then panic when it goes down. This adds to the volatility in the shares of many technology stocks. In short, enjoy the ride while it lasts. Technology stocks will move higher during the short-term, but the real question is, "For how long?" The answer, 5 weeks at the most. Mark Johnson Editor IFC

To: Doug T. who wrote (41367)	1/10/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: TokyoMex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 119973

Yuppo .. by buying 100 good shares ,, you get your money back ,, even if it takes a year ,, look at CA ,, or KEA, or INTC ,, CSCO ,, DELL ,, BA ,, hard to keep good stocks down ,, ;-)

To: Doug T. who wrote (41367)	1/17/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: Doug T.	Respond to of 119973

What is Fair Value? CNBC's most FAQ programtrading.com What is Fair Value? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- One of the most frequently asked question from viewers calling into CNBC's morning The Squawk Box has been "What is Fair Value?". Almost every day, CNBC gives viewers the theoretical prices for program trading, listing the Fair Value, along with certain levels in the premium (or spread) that would theoretically cause program buying or program selling to hit the markets. In addition, every time that the NYSE puts collars on computer assisted program trading, CNBC shows a graphic on your television screen that says "Curbs In". So naturally a lot of viewers call in asking about the so called "Fair Value" and wanting to know exactly what it is and what it means. According to Professor Hans Stoll at Vanderbilt University the formula for Fair Value is really very simple. Of course that is easy for him to say, since he is one of the world's leading academic authorities on equities markets, listed options, program trading and a bunch of other stuff about stock markets. Here is Professor Stoll's formula for Fair Value: FV = S [1 + (I - D)] Where "S" is the S&P 500 Index known as , SPY on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, or SPX on the NYSE and CBOE exchanges. Where "I" is the amount of interest paid to your broker to borrow the money to buy all of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The interest is calculated based on a percentage lending rate (R) from the current date (today) until the date that the S&P Futures Contract expires (H, M, U, or Z). Where "D" is the amount of Dividends paid to you from all of the companies that you own in the S&P 500 Index. The dividends are paid to you based on the record dates for each stock in the Index that are announced between the current date (today) and until the date that the S&P Futures Contract expires (H, M, U, or Z). This dividend income is expressed as a percentage rate too. That's it. Wasn't that simple. Fair Value is nothing more than... ...the value of SP500, plus the interest I pay my broker to buy the stocks, minus all of the dividend checks I get. Now that you know what Fair Value is, you can go on to learn exactly what it means and how it works. And; more importantly, how you can make it work for you with your trading and investments. Just click the FAQ. And, if you really want to learn everything about fair value, buy/sell programs, program trading pattern recognition, and all you need to know about computerized trading programs, then join us in 1999 for one of our Program Trading Seminars. What! You didn't get the same number that is on CNBC? That's because they subtract the S&P 500 Index price from the Fair Value in the above formula; and, express Fair Value as the difference.