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To: Scotsman who wrote (100)1/10/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: stokaholic  Respond to of 411
 
Scotsman-

You are absolutely right about the competition thing. Look at the airline business---why aren't Expedia and Travelocity (on-line middlemen) as "big" as AMZN? (not from a stock perspective, since they are part of other organizations but just in general. It is because the airlines themselves took the initiative and are selling direct to the consumer. Although good for the airlines, it is sort of silly for the consumer to limit himself to the one choice offered by going to a proprietary airline site.

Nonetheless, this airline model works. So why don't Doubleday, Random House, etc. market directly to the consumer? Then you definitely don't need an AMZN.

Even if this doesn't happen, you and I could have an on-line book selling site up by the end of 1Q99 if we wanted. The only advantage AMZN has is they were first and innovative. I'm actually kind of surprised BKS hasn't done better with their AOL connection.

As far as expenses, I'm not sure I agree with you. They do carry inventory, in fact I'd be willing to submit they carry a larger inventory than your average bookstore. Their advantage is probably a shorter carrying time and lower overhead (warehouse vs. bookstore) and lower "store" wages (shipping clerks vs. retail). However, they still have to pay for the books and pay the overhead of a huge shipping operation. I'm guessing their S&H costs don't come close to recouping the cost of that operation.