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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Petty who wrote (11365)	1/10/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Nope, didn't load up and continually kick myself for it. I personally don't believe it'll get that bad again. I think we'll slowly muddle higher with any limited downside if it occurs to happen in February. 7 on UBB was utterly ridiculous. If you were hear at the time you may have understood the panic some of us were experiencing. I think others such as Tony and Armin were smart enough to buy at those levels, but I was shell shocked. I also think there is a lot more focus on UBB now. The banking action in Brazil over the last six months or so is keeping interest high IMO. Lord knows I've been wrong time and time again on this country, but I've been right enough to make quite a bit also. This market could fly in either direction at any time. Upside still seems to far outweigh downside. I don't think we'll ever see last year lows again unless something happens do Cardoso. At this point I plan on adding to my favorite options on any weakness beginning Monday...making sure to stick with April on out. May even buy some UBB and add to my TNE stock. In the end, I'll win here. The search engine I believe only goes back 120 days...used to say that at the bottom of the screen. I have to run out for a while...at at glance not sure what you were asking on the other posts...will get back later. sf

To: David Petty who wrote (11365)	1/10/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Crisis-torn Brazil tries to limit fallout from feud Reuters, Sunday, January 10, 1999 at 16:13 By Phil Stewart SAO PAULO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's economic planners are bracing for a high-profile battle in Congress this week that could decide whether the nation's fiscal austerity drive can survive a political feud that has panicked global markets. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso has scrambled to limit fallout from the standoff, which erupted last Wednesday when a rogue governor announced a moratorium on its debt payments. The ensuing confidence crisis cost Brazil $1 billion in a hemorrhage of dollar outflows last week as investors worried the world's eighth largest economy may yet lapse into an Asian-style meltdown. Cardoso, who has successfully maneuvered through a minefield of economic crises since he took office in 1995, now hopes to sooth nervous markets by pushing part of a contentious belt-tightening austerity package through Congress this week. The measures, which include a tax hike on financial transactions, need to be passed to qualify Brazil for a $41.5 billion international rescue package secured last November. "Cardoso knows that the whole world is watching to see what happens in Congress," said Ricardo Pedreira, a political analysts at Santa Fe Ideas in Brasilia. "So, this is a fundamental moment for him to prove that he still has control over Congress and can pass this (fiscal reform) package." As of Sunday, Cardoso appears to have prevented Minas Gerais governor Itamar Franco from distracting lawmakers, who are still voting in favor of government reforms. Meanwhile, Franco also has failed to woo other cash-strapped states to follow his lead and halt their debt payments. Mario Covas, governor of Brazil's most powerful and most indebted state of Sao Paulo, condemned Franco's "irresponsibility" during his inauguration speech on Sunday. "Sao Paulo will never turn its back on Brazil," said Covas. "We will honor all of our obligations." According an O Globo newspaper poll published on Sunday, only one state, Rio Grande do Sul, could still potentially join Minas in a debt freeze. The rest of the country opposes the move. But Franco, who proceeded Cardoso as president and even appointed him Finance Minister, remains undaunted. In a newspaper interview published on Sunday, Franco said he will meet with opposition governors in his home state on Jan. 18, two days before Minas Gerais must make its first $80 million debt payment or face $700 million fines. He also blasted Cardoso for ignoring Brazil's social ills and for abusing the nation's inflation-bashing Real Plan, announced by the finance ministry at the end of Franco's term. "Today the president and his economic team have taken the country into recession and unemployment. The Real Plan was not created for this," Franco said in Estado de S.Paulo newspaper. Worrying foreign investors is also the governor's refusal to clarify his position on the state's outstanding Eurobonds, $108 million of which are set to mature next month. Emerging debt slid last week on fears the moratorium would include Eurobonds, which Franco said he plans to study on Monday. "If we have enough money after paying for state workers' salaries and paying for our prisoners' food, then no problem," Franco told reporters at his state mansion over the weekend. But Cardoso is standing firm. He has threatened to seize tax revenues and withhold cash transfers to Minas Gerais -- or any other state -- that fails to honor its "internal and external" obligations. "I will not allow the law to be ignored. The most senior authority in this country is the president," Cardoso said. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: David Petty who wrote (11365)	1/10/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: Tony van Werkhooven	Respond to of 22640

Steve- Re:UBB at 7-10 At that point in time I was too shell shocked, given everything else I had was sinking fast. If it dropped to 7-10, I might buy some more, however Brazil is already a pretty large component of my overall portfolio. Tony

To: David Petty who wrote (11365)	1/11/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

David...so you loading up? 68 key support. My gut is that we have seen the worst of it. Carry over panic selling from Friday. I just don't see it breaking the 64 level short of more bad news...real bad news. Course I could be a good contrarian indicator. As you can see, the question is when has it bottomed. I still think things are much brighter than they were when we went to 46 something. This week will be key. Not sure when congress recesses for Carnival...do you remember? sf