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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16836)	1/10/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

"This is my fourth time to short AMZN, two of the first three were closed out with loses." Roger, perhaps you could share a comparison of your successful short of ZITL. If I recall correctly, you did catch the top of that one after some initial frustration. Of course AMZN and ZITL are different. AMZN can always forecast profitability in 2 or 3 years, and ZITL doesn't have that luxury. Also, Jack King is no Jeff Bezos. Barb

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16836)	1/10/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: McNabb Brothers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I sold some Feb. $200 calls on Friday for $28! Tomorrow I'm going to try and sell some more between $20 to $25 or hopefully higher. Most people would see this trade as very dangerous, but if one is willing to go short at $200 then it is a safer bet then being short the stock at these levels. AMZN would have to go to $228 for me to begin to lose money, where as if I had went short the stock at $175 when I sold the calls on Friday and it goes to $228 then I would have a $53 point lose. True I will not make as much if AMZN falls hard, but if it stays below $200 and all the time value expires, it would be the same as buying the stock back to cover a short position at $147 if one had sold at $175 Friday! I intend to trade half my position on dips and rallies and plan on holding the other half to option expiration in Feb. Hank

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16836)	1/10/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: Al Chechatka	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, might I suggest just buying the leap puts on this. Here's why: I bought 4 contracts on Dec 15th, the day before that guy said it was worth 400 pre-split. The stock went up, the calls went up dollar for dollar, but the puts are barely down. The last day of '98, the stock didn't move, and the puts went UP $10 a piece. When it was at $600 or just shy of that this past Friday, the Jan 230's (now the 76 5/8's) were at 57. I bought them at 83 when the stock was at 230. If I would have been just short, 400 shares, I would have been down much, much more. (but they probably would have been squeezed away, possibly). When this thing finally does break, the premium for the puts will increase even more. I haven't closed my position...I think it will break before 2001 where I will make money on this one and on future puts that I buy this week. Al C.