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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (3615)	1/10/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ============================== The SHORT-TERM technicals for the overall market is a CLASS 1 sell, with CLASS 2 SELLs on the NAZ, RUT, BKX. Buy-in time at MON's highs. Minimum reversal is 75 points on the DOW, and very seldom is a CLASS 1 sell signal is negated, however such occured recently. The normal pullback in a bull market is approximately 150-250, with a 75 point minimum. This upcoming week is expiration week, and statistically it is commonly an up week, at least flat. Although the pullback could start Mon, expiration week may skew things. As previously mentioned, the Fibinocci 55 day TOP-to-TOP is on JAN 17. The question is how much will the market pullback - heck if I know now. The NEW HIGHs/LOWs have improved alittle, but the NEW HIGHs just cant seem to stay above 100 consistently. To put it in perspective, the NEW HIGHs averaged in the 200-350 range during the spring runup last year. The DOW was up 100 points on FRI but the decliners slightly outnumbered the advances. I realise that the surge on FRI came late in the day so the A/D may have been skewed. Also there are tons of divergences in the technicals and market internals, which is giving the hint that this upcoming TOP could be a mid-term top and could possibly lead to stronger pullbacks. We are now in the 13 week of this runup, and statistically strong runups lasts about 3-4 months. On a more subjective basis, it appears that we are watching a blow-off top in the making in the INTERNUTs and NAZ. I have to express caution for those playing the short side, since in a blow-off top, who really knows how high certain sectors can go as evidenced in the Internuts(DOT.X). Seeya