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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Otis who wrote (16840)	1/10/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

"Which way is AMZN going tomorrow? Thoughts?" It will fluctuate. Barb P. Morgan

To: Otis who wrote (16840)	1/10/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave	Respond to of 18691

Seems to me to be too much optimism on how these inets can only go up. Market caps on some are catching up to many of the large well established companies (which had to work to get to that position). It is during the times of extreme optimism that us "shorties" need to establish our positions and during the times of extreme pessimism when we should be long. Right now, we are at the extreme optimism in my opinion. Maybe not the top, but close to it and annyone who thinks they can get the top waited to long and will most likely miss the opportunity. To back up my pessimism, just look at the overall market breadth lately. Back in november, the breadth improved dramatically enough to flash a short term buy signal. Now the breadth has been deteriorating and has flashed a sell signal for the short term. Unless the overall market breadth improves, this "sell" signal will get stronger. Add to that is the fact that the latest advance was concentrated in only a few areas, net stocks and semiconductors/electronics. Many show nice advances, but the "easy" money has been made and smart investors are once again pulling their money off the table. Maybe I am wrong, but I was completely long until last week. I was completely long until august last year and made good money on the downside then. I am still more long than short, but things are changing quickly and my finger is on the sell button. For anyone who is interested in a chart poised for failure, check out ek. Looks like it is going back to 58. Nice double top, with the second top more of a right shoulder, neckline at 70, and next downside target of 50 to 55. Market cap is only 23 billion, less than both yhoo and amzn. Just my opinion. Time and the tape will tell if I am right. Good luck all.