Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (36267)	1/10/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

David......This idea of a big corrective ABC from August of 1997 is not unreasonable, it is partially responsible for my position last summer when i was ranting and raving about the bogus rally into July 20th....and why i was suspecting a sharp down from there which would be befitting of that wave count..AND.. if you wanted to count this move into a larger count and call it a WAVE 4 of larger degree then it would not be the least bit unreasonable to WATCH from a triangle wave 4....meaning the possiblility that this rally is D and the subsequent pullback would be E.....same result, different count.... then on with the bull market I am not promoting this scenario as THE ONE, just commenting on the validity of such a read....... another valid read during this time period is as follows: you have recognized the move from the bottom of the Oct 1997 mini-crash...up to the July 1998 top as possibily being an ABC............ a view which I believe has high probability, due to internal wave counts occuring after the bottom in the Fall of 1997 now if you wanted to, you could construct a large (Cycle type Degree) Wave 3 as having developed through the 1990's........and have the Fall of 1997 being the Wave 4..... so how would the rise into July 1998...as an ABC...fit into this scenario, if wave 4 ended in Fall 1997?? well, Wave 5 could be a huge Ending Diagonal, all 3's.....wave 1 up to July 98, wave 2 down to recent lows.....now wave 3 (particularly if we continue higher this month)....followed by a wave 4, which would overlap into wave 1 (-9000) and then up with wave 5 for a run at 11,000 in a summer 1999 rally......this would complete a Cycle 3 wave that has been going on for a decade this would then be followed by a large Cycle 4 correction, brought on by Y2K concerns, slower or negative growth,general indecision.....with a trading range of several thousand points lasting, perhaps, through Summer of 2000 anyhow...just some other stuff to think about it appears that all the scenarios we are talking about have one thing in common...a large to very large(Oct. low revisited) corrective is in the wings, tops are tougher to get right because of the 'Energizer Bunny' nature of this bull....this current rally has to be very close but I am not RIPPED yet and it would seem that the first GOOD dip will be followed by a strong retrace and then the wave c or 3 of the corrective would cook Carl

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (36267)	1/10/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Plonkster, I never gave that count, My main criticism of most e-wavers is that they pay to much attention to wave counts and too little attention to market internals. One must confirm the other. Without internals wave counts are held together like Carl's velcro boxer shorts -g-. and you know it's not kind on your eyes when he trades naked -g- My thesis has been since the recovery of 10/8 is that we did not have the four year cycle low in October. Every other cycle is a double dose of poo poo du du. 74, 82, 90 were some smelly bear droppings. This was just a slapp on the wrist. This was no bear market. I repeat: This was no bear market. Bear markets squelch excess and clean out the speculators to prepare for the next bull cycle. This is a market of incredibly great excess and people are really fooling themselves if they think a .47 cboe put/call ratio is a foundation for a bull run to 11,400 or 54,000 -ggggggggggggggggg- We will need to get the put/call ratio back to where it was in October to set a foundation for another 2000 point run . . . and what will that take? I believe we have an internal set-up (and these internals have been setting up since 11/6 - a long period of divergence) and a wave count for a dramatic sell-off. Internet Stocks are the market leaders, the market will follow the leader, tail WILL wag the dog, in a short period of time that tail has really gained a lot of weight, more like Godzilla tail -g- This is not a short term blow-off. This internet frenzy has been building for two years now. bb