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Technology Stocks : Data Broadcasting Corp. (DBCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Wu who wrote (2593)	1/11/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: ztect	Respond to of 5102

John, In response to your comments... "...I don't care about DBCC's business, cash flow, debt burden, or any other fundamental measure...." This was pretty obvious by the credence you gave to brief.com's report. "...I want a small float, high short interest, and lots of retail investors to make DBCC a moonshot.... DBCC has a large float, if it didn't, it would have shot "to the moon" already. DBCC is NOT MALL or KTEL for this reason. There has been a lot of buying and selling. I do not think you'll see any 10 or 20 points days for the reasons I stated in my previous posts to you despite the large volume of shares traded.. "..Once the IPO is out, DBCC will trade at about 38% of MarketWatch..." This statement has absolutely no basis. There are precedents for and against making any such conjecture for this or any other valuation. The simple fact is that no one knows. "...I am treating DBCC as a pure momentum play for the MarketWatch IPO... So am I, but the effect and reason for Marketwatch was to call attention to the wide range of other services that DBC provides. "...Unless MarketWatch is a monster IPO, I think DBCC will tank hard.... IMO MarketWatch will be a monster and IMO DBC will have a sell off in spite of this. But the sell-off will be for a couple days or a week until Marketwatch is so lofty that DBC is an inexpensive way to own Marketwatch. Remember that MarketWatch has a float of only 2.75 mil shares, with only 10 mil shares outstanding. Plus DBCC's trading volume is a very good barometer of interest in Marketwatch's Shares. These are my two primary reasons for stating that IMO MarketWatch will be a monster. As for my strategy, I'm not sure how I'll play it yet. I've already covered my initial position and then some, and have a lot of latitude since I bought in at (6) six. I have participated on the DBCC thread since I made my purchase, look at my first post to this thread and the price of DBCC on that date to verify the integrity of my statement about my buy in price. One thing that will effect my strategy will be an upping of the opening offering price of Marketwatch shares. I recently owned DRIV which I bought at 6 and sold at 18. DRIV has traded as high as 57, so I am a little more hesitant with selling off my entire position too quickly based on my "target pricing". ztect

To: John Wu who wrote (2593)	1/11/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5102

John, your math is incorrect...... and frankly, mine has been too if what I just checked is correct. DBCC has 32+ million shares outstanding, MKWT will have 10 million (is that right ??). DBCC cannot consistently trade at 38% of MKWT because it will have over 3 times more shares outstanding !!. If MKWT trades at 100, that does not place an increased value on DBCC of 38 points, but 38 points divided by 3+ ... which equals approx ... say 13 points. So if you take a starting point for DBCC of its previous all time high of 16+, rather than its low of 3+ and add the 13 you get 29. So one could assume DBCC is fully valued at 26+. Especially as MKWT will not, imho, get close to the 100 point trading value anyway. Now I've calculated this before and got a better figure for DBCC ... so if anyone would care to check my base figures, I'd appreciate it. This does support any theory put forward of a future buyout of DBCC by CBS as the stock price will likely settle back to low teens once the momentum has gone. I think a large number of people are making the same mistake as you are John ..... hence the current price. That does not mean the momentum will not take it higher .. just that you need to be ready to exit quickly !! Stephen