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To: Carl R. who wrote (42135)	1/10/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Respond to of 53903

Japan's Fujitsu to cut back conventional DRAM production TOKYO, Jan 11 (AFP) - Japanese electronics giant Fujitsu Ltd. said Monday it will cut back production of its memory chips in the face of a crumbling market and falling profits. Fujitsu decided to scale down production of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips after forecasting its microchip division will lose 90 billion yen (800 million dollars) in the year to March, a company spokeswoman said. "By scaling down the level of mass production of conventional DRAMs, we will shift more resources to strengthen system LSI (large-scale integrated) circuits production," the spokeswoman said. System LSIs group memory and logic functions on one chip and are widely used in the home electronics market, including digital cameras. Fujitsu will halt production of all benchmark 64-megabit DRAMs at domestic and US plants by the end of the year, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said, although the company spokeswoman denied the report. In December, Fujitsu and Toshiba Corp. announced they would work together on a more powerful next-generation one-gigabit DRAM chip using 0.13-micron level technology. The Fujitsu spokeswoman said the company's decision to cut back DRAM production "will not affect our alliance with Toshiba at all." She also denied a report that Fujitsu, Toshiba and Sony Corp. would jointly develop microchips, saying: "We have separate contracts with each company, as far as I know there is no three-way alliance." Fujitsu and Sony agreed January last year to jointly develop system LSIs, she said.

To: Carl R. who wrote (42135)	1/11/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: FJB	Respond to of 53903

ebnonline.com Semico issues allocation alert to buyers By Crista Souza Electronic Buyers' News (01/08/99, 04:35:50 PM EDT) Never thought we'd hear the word “allocation” so early in the new year. Semico Research is reporting prices on 64-Mbit SDRAMs are rising sharply, and microprocessors will be scarce in the first-quarter, as factories that produce the chips are quickly filling to capacity. According to the Phoenix, Ariz.-based market research firm, average selling prices for 64-Mbit SDRAMs had risen to nearly $10 by the end of the fourth quarter of 1998, up from $6 at the beginning of the quarter. “When we hear of that [happening] at the beginning of the year, it bodes well for having better ASPs for the rest of the year,” said Semico analyst Jim Feldhan. Semico has raised its 1999 DRAM forecast to a “conservative” 38% revenue growth. Over the course of the year, die shrinks will allow suppliers to produce more chips per wafer, and capacity will loosen somewhat. However, new packaging requirements that accompany the introduction of Rambus DRAM-which carry as much as a $5 adder per chip-will keep ASPs from declining, Feldhan said. In addition, OEMs in the networking equipment segment are suddenly paying a premium on older fast page mode and EDO DRAM parts, which manufacturers are phasing out of production. Meanwhile, AMD and Intel are reportedly selling as many microprocessors as they can produce, and some distributors said they were on allocation for certain desktop-targeted models last quarter. Despite other pundits' predictions that competition to supply the sub-$1,000 PC market will cause severe MPU price erosion, Semico sees capacity constraints keeping ASPs high, and resulting in an 18% to 19% growth in total MPU revenue for 1999.

To: Carl R. who wrote (42135)	1/11/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: Ed Beers	Respond to of 53903

> It also takes longer to test, so should be good for TER. < Given that higher bandwidth is the whole point of RDRAM, I would expect it to take less time to test. I believe that it will require new testers and that will benefit TER just as the transition to SDRAM did. Ed

To: Carl R. who wrote (42135)	1/11/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: PAinvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Agreed, sounds like a shortage developing! In addition to the testing requirements, Super CSP will probably change back end requirements as well, so the landscape could change drastically once Rambus becomes mainstream (not to mention a significant cost saving). Also it looks like Advantest may not be as strong on Rambus testers as they were on Synchronous - good for TER and HP. I also had a response to a previous question that you asked me on Friday, I think. MU's 0.21 micron 64meg PC-100 chips are 55mm2. They mentioned that they expect the 0.18 micron 64meg chip size to be about 30mm2 with the 128meg at around 60mm2

To: Carl R. who wrote (42135)	1/16/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl R- I'm long TER exactly because the RDRAM ramp expected. However, your die size penalty numbers for RDRAM need refinement. At 64mb it is 13-15%, at 128mb it is 8-10%, and for 256mb it is less than 5%. With the increased package and test costs, price per bit compared to 64mb SDRAM will be at least 30% for the preferred 128mb version right now. Exactly which PC OEM will buy DRAM at a 30% price premium? None I can think of. Oh yeah, Intel will force this ... not. RDRAM not needed in workstations or for PCs less than $1500 this year. If Intel tries to force this, Mr Dell and Mr Compaq may seek Mr AMD and Mr Cyrix. Intel would not want that. Intel is not stupid, and they will provide a cost effective SDRAM alternative in the end. Z