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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (595)	1/11/1999 11:59:00 PM
From: ayahuasca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

I'll give this a shot. I dont know if my reasoning has been used yet, as I have not read all the posts,but here goes. First, I think the internet represents a cultural paradigm shift and the companies leading the way will continue to be valued (although somewhat more narrowly) in ways we have never seen before. In my opinion, justifiably so. With that said here is my first guess for a correction of 40% or more in the internets over a five day period (that might be a bit steep but we'll have to see): Start date, Monday January 18th. I think the internets will continue their run through this week. The Market Watch IPO on Wed should propel momentum, and alot rides on the YHOO earnings tomorrow. I believe that by the end of this week we will begin to see some weakening. Then, next week we have this: WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak on the state of the economy before the House Ways and Means Committee on Jan. 20 at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), a committee spokesman told Reuters Wednesday. Committee Chairman Bill Archer, a Texas Republican, will announce later Wednesday that the committee's first hearing of the new Congress will be held Jan. 20 and the witness will be Greenspan on the economy, committee spokesman Ari Fleischer said. I think it is entirely possible that this could be the catalyst for a severe near term correction. We are in similar, if not more optimistic times to when Greenspan issued his 'irrational exuberance' statement that presaged a nasty sell-off. He may say something similar this time, although I think he will say that the economy is just fine, if not stellar. But given the gains in some of these net stocks people are just left with their jaws agape. If it was irrational exuberance to Alan before it might well be delusional insanity to him now. Personally, I will be very cautious heading inot next week, and that stands as my guess for this little contest.

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (595)	1/12/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: ayahuasca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

#1 This is a repost from last night. I needed to add the '#1' for it to count. I'll give this a shot. I dont know if my reasoning has been used yet, as I have not read all the posts,but here goes. First, I think the internet represents a cultural paradigm shift and the companies leading the way will continue to be valued (although somewhat more narrowly) in ways we have never seen before. In my opinion, justifiably so. With that said here is my first guess for a correction of 40% or more in the internets over a five day period (that might be a bit steep but we'll have to see): Start date, Monday January 18th. I think the internets will continue their run through this week. The Market Watch IPO on Wed should propel momentum, and alot rides on the YHOO earnings tomorrow. I believe that by the end of this week we will begin to see some weakening. Then, next week we have this: WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak on the state of the economy before the House Ways and Means Committee on Jan. 20 at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), a committee spokesman told Reuters Wednesday. Committee Chairman Bill Archer, a Texas Republican, will announce later Wednesday that the committee's first hearing of the new Congress will be held Jan. 20 and the witness will be Greenspan on the economy, committee spokesman Ari Fleischer said. I think it is entirely possible that this could be the catalyst for a severe near term correction. We are in similar, if not more optimistic times to when Greenspan issued his 'irrational exuberance' statement that presaged a nasty sell-off. He may say something similar this time, although I think he will say that the economy is just fine, if not stellar. But given the gains in some of these net stocks people are just left with their jaws agape. If it was irrational exuberance to Alan before it might well be delusional insanity to him now. Personally, I will be very cautious heading inot next week, and that stands as my guess for this little contest.