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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (25893)	1/11/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116790

Feb gold now up $1.70 and silver has reversed - guess this little spike is getting a little sharper. If you short all the way up to $1,200 you'll have to garner a lot of capital, the house will be long gone. . E

To: Zardoz who wrote (25893)	1/11/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116790

Hutch, I keep thinking you're very negative on gold stocks but own ABX as a hedge? RE:"but the bandwagon is too full for my liking." What do you expect? This is a Goldbug thread. These guys and gals are long term holders of gold, gold stocks, whatever, looking for a disaster. Hardly an indication that the bandwagon is too full. Sure looks like the XAU heading higher. Slowly but surely. Jim

To: Zardoz who wrote (25893)	1/11/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116790

Hope you ain't short silver! someone must be getting a whipping.

To: Zardoz who wrote (25893)	1/11/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116790

Dollar's free fall raises concerns Will Japanese investors bail out in hoards? By Julie Rannazzisi, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 7:49 PM ET Jan 11, 1999 NewsWatch NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- If you want to get an idea of how the Treasury market is performing these days, all you have to take a glance at dollar quotes. If the currency is tanking, there's a good chance its sell-off is plaguing the Treasury market as well. The greenback has been falling like a stone against the yen, reaching 28-month lows Monday, accentuating concerns among market players that Japanese investors will stampede out of dollar-denominated assets. It's an issue that has put Treasurys under the gun in the past month and one that strategists say will not dissipate quickly. Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak, Hirsch & Co., notes that from 1995 to 1997 the dollar advanced approximately 25 percent and foreigners bought a net average of $170 billion in government securities each year. As the dollar entered a slump in late 1998, net foreign purchases skidded to a relatively puny $13.4 billion, according to Crescenzi. The yen's resurgence has been helped by the dramatic rise in Japanese government bond yields in the latter part of 1998. In fact, Japan's 10-year yield soared to 2.01 percent on Dec. 30, 1998 compared to a low of 0.67 percent reached at the start of October 1998. And the differential between yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys and 10-year Japanese bonds, currently at around 314 basis points, has fallen to historically low levels. "(The rise in JGB yields) will continue to pressure the dollar (vs.) yen as the 10-year spread has come in so much," said Allison Montgomery, currency economist at I.D.E.A. in New York. Montgomery said that while off-shore investments will continue to remain attractive to Japanese investors, there will also be more scope for money to stay home. And with Japan's fiscal year-end drawing near on March 31, the market may witness more repatriation of Japanese funds, she noted. John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, said the U.S.' huge trade deficit with Japan is finally beginning to be reflected in exchange rates. Japanese exporters, suffocated by a glut of dollars, no longer are willing to hold these dollars or invest them in U.S.-denominated assets. Market strategists also assert that the richly valued U.S. equity market is also making Japanese investors extremely skittish. Budding technology stocks lifted the Nasdaq smartly Monday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average wallowed in negative terrain, ending off 23.43 points. See Market Snapshot. Analysts said the shift from U.S. assets to pursue other investment opportunities -- such as euro-denominated stocks and bonds -- isn't a fad that will be reversed overnight. Thus, look for some rocky rides along the way. The greenback slid 14.3 percent in 1998, or nearly 19 yen, beginning the year at 132.40 and ending at a shabby 113.50. The 30-year benchmark bond (TRE=Z3-GB) slumped under the weight of the sagging dollar, managing to erase the lion's share of the day's losses only as blue chip stocks faltered. The bellwether 30-year was off 10/32 to yield ($TYX) 5.304 percent. See Bond Report. In late New York trading, the dollar fell 2.1 percent to 108.55 after falling as low as 108.25. See currency updates. Yen's levels worries Japanese officials Near-term support for the dollar may come from an unlikely source -- Japan. In fact, the yen's revival comes at the most inopportune time as it hampers the recovery of Japan's moribund economy by making Japanese exports more expensive to the rest of the world. That could put pressure on the nation's central bank, or perhaps another country's bank, to sell yen for dollars in an attempt to tame the Japanese currency. Japanese officials have been vocal over the past week over the increasing power of the yen to take bites out of company earnings. Vice Finance Minister Koji Tanami suggested Tokyo's readiness to step in and curtail the greenback's plunge. The U.S. currency is also getting hit by recent worries that Brazil won't be able to get its fiscal house in order, which could seriously jeopardize the disbursement of monies from the International Monetary Fund. Talk circulated Friday that Brazil's Finance Minister Pedro Malan would resign, fueling a furious selling in Brazilian shares. The Bovespa sank 5.58 percent Monday. The dollar and the U.S. economy If a currency reflects the underlying fundamentals of a country, why would the U.S.'s currency lose ground against the yen? After all, the U.S. economy pounded out an astounding 378,000 jobs in December while Japan saw its gross domestic product contract by 0.7 percent in the third quarter and fall a whopping 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. Lonski, the Moody's economist, said the yen's rise reflects the fact that things aren't getting any worse in Japan, and not that they've gotten any better yet. Meanwhile, the stumbling dollar will give a lift to U.S. exports, which, players note, goes against the need for a rate cut from the Fed to spur U.S. economic growth. "The dollar's slide will bring higher import prices and stronger manufacturing by mid-year; a 7 percent drop in the dollar equals to 100 basis points in rate cuts," Crescenzi remarked. And that's another reason Treasurys are getting hammered. Julie Rannazzisi is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch. cbs.marketwatch.com