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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7851)	1/11/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9980

Robert, the turnips are not seeing any inflation (namely YOY by next Dec we will be within 1.75% higher prices). Short term, the bond market is worried about inflation, just as the Zucchini are, but I think this is a blip (cold weather etc.).Until the growth engine in Asia is restarted, demand for commodities will be low, all this of course, in the turnips opinion. As for a recession this year in the US, unlike Yardeni, I do not see it, maybe early in 2000 (meaning a possible debacle 6 to 9 months before) once the expenditure for y2k are out of the way and if Asia (meaning Japan, since I think that Korea is already getting better) is still in its "finding its way" mood. Zeev

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7851)	1/11/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: N	Respond to of 9980

Terrific! Zucchinis and turnips! Another comedic economist! Powerful forecasting tools, yessirree... throw those ARIMAS in the compost heap. The chattering sez two low growth quarters to come, but the forecasts are all over, up, down...1998QIV was 3.7 percent. Price indices out this week. Not informed enough for an opinion. Leave it to the vegetables. Just admiring the humor... and, thinking the zucchinis have a shot...against the conventional wisdom. Nancy

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7851)	1/11/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: N	Respond to of 9980

Robert, Zeev...here's what the OECD turnips say... oecd.org Under the assumption that the situation in financial markets stabilises, the OECD now projects a slowdown in real GDP growth for the OECD area, from above 3 per cent in 1997 to about 2¼ per cent in 1998 and then to 1¾ per cent in 1999, before a recovery to around 2¼ per cent in 2000. This reflects different economic situations across the major OECD regions: In Japan, strong deflationary forces are expected to continue acting on the economy. As a result, even taking into account the effects of the fiscal packages announced in April and November and assuming that rapid progress is achieved in solving financial sector problems, output is expected only to edge up in 1999 and a very mild recovery is projected for the year 2000. In the United States, the economy is projected to slow to below potential growth over the next two years, reflecting lower business profit expectations, the widening in credit spreads and the stabilisation, if not a reversal, of equity prices. Nonetheless, the level of capacity utilisation should remain high in 2000. In the euro area, real activity is also expected to decelerate somewhat, although growth should remain around potential in both 1999 and 2000, reflecting the continued momentum for recovery in domestic demand, and especially consumption. In most emerging market economies, the outlook is for continued weakness. Adjustment processes currently underway in the five Asian countries most severely hit by the crisis are likely to persist through much of 1999, and given the degree of economic integration, spillover effects will significantly reduce growth prospects in other economies in the region. A slowdown is also expected in South America, in part reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies in response to the crisis, while prospects for stabilisation in the short run appear bleak in Russia. Nancy