To: John Hauser who wrote (88551 ) 1/11/1999 3:09:00 PM From: Mary Cluney Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
JH, >>>Check out this internet stock: INTC 140 3/8 +10 11/16 140 3/8 140 7/16 14:18:10 <<< Many of the analysts covering Intel have expertise in the retail PC market - they haven't up until now understood the computer business. They usually talk about a low end and high end PC market. What they don't understand is the enterprise computer market. As an example, Drew Peck at Cowens and company, even though very knowledgeable about the semiconducter business but admits to not understanding the market where Xeon chips are being sold. >>>>>>Peck maintains that "I'm not going to put a buy rating on a stock without knowing how it will do in 1999." If Intel does see spectacular revenue growth, it will come from its Xeon chip for the high-end server market. "Without Xeon this company would be a basket case," Peck says. "They are charging $1,000 apiece for it. But it's a brand-new product serving a brand-new market about which we know nothing." <<< This misunderstanding is probably much more pronounced when it come to Dell as I believe most people who cover Dell are far less technical than Drew Peck and their expertise is confined to the retail and soho PC market. The point is, I believe that it will take a few more quarters for most people to figure out where Dell growth is coming from. IMO, Dell servers and the ones on the drawing boards are now more powerful than any mainframe computers from IBM pre 1985. I know I will get a lot of flack from techies for saying this - they will tell me I don't know what I'm talking about - but I truly believe that most of the applications (maybe 90%) that were designed to run on mainframe computer before 1985 could easily be handled by current Dell Servers. This doesn't mean that they are going to throw out their mainframes and install Dell servers right away. What this means, in my opinion, is that Dell is no longer just a PC company - but a true information technology computer company - it's a whole 'nother market - and it will be awhile before most people figure it out. Mary Cluney