Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (3675)	1/11/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, in the July top, we had a Dow theory sell signal with a lower high in the Transports. We could be now having a similar Dow Theory Sell, but only using the Utilities, which have made a lower high (rates are sucking). WE ARE IN A BLOW-OFF TOP AND I WOULD BE CAREFUL SHORTING OR BUYING SHORT TERM PUTS. I believe that we completed a five wave sequence in the DOW on Friday, however that COULD be only one wave up of a five wave sequence and after this correction/consolidation phase we could start another substantial leg up. The tape will tell in the next several days. The bear case needs to be confirmed by an engulfing reversal closing on the low with follow thru selling the next day. The bull case needs to hold above 9100 in the DOW. The problem I have with a continuing bull is the vertical nature of the internet index chart. IF this bull market was to make a five wave move off the 12/14 low with the first leg competed Friday, that would mean that the internets would have to have one-two months of daily vertical movement. IMO the internets will peak in conjunction with the greater market. In 1987 the XAU rallied up with the greater market for 3 quarters and topped with the market when rates killed off the bull. This time I don't believe the valuation level will be able to stand a bull run in commodities and the xau for an extended period, but the tape will tell. bb