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Technology Stocks : XYBR - Xybernaut -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LT who wrote (1870)	1/11/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Crusader	Respond to of 6847

It would seem that all the units were factored in after the December 16 roll out date, so that is roughly 2 weeks worth of shipments. I would imagine, though cannot confirm, that they count receivables after shipment, so that is not too bad. You also have to factor in the holidays, so all in all I was happy with the news. Plus, Qtr 1 will be significantly higher. Significant can be broadly defined, so we'll have to wait and see. Since they've ordered 25,000 IBM Via Voices and 25,000 of something else (have to look back through PR's to remember what), then I would expect about 5,000 at least to ship in quarter 1. Even if they're discounting them to $4,000 (which I hope they're not), we're talking $20 mil in revs. I would have to believe their margins are high, 50% possibly. It's my speculation, but reading the PR's in conjunction with each other it all makes sense & I'm expecting some big things from this company. Crusader

To: LT who wrote (1870)	1/11/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Dave Shoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6847

Dearest LT, Your math is impeccable, as far as I can tell. The one million dollar milestone is something Xybernaut has been waiting for since their inception in 1979. As I understand it, when they read your post they cancelled the celebration an returned all the Champagne. I don't, however, believe they will have to wait too long to reschedule the party, as I'm expecting there will be another zero tacked on to the figure when next quarter's announcement rolls around (my bad opinion). The current production, extrapolated (stolen) from recent press releases, is 25,000 units minimum this year. If they are "in Line with Expectations", as the headline read, this would suggest a significant fraction of those units are expected to be sold. Knowing that computers don't age as well as, let's say, fine wine, I'd expect most will be sold this year, adding possibly another decimally-placed milestone to their financial picture at millenium's* end. As far as offering info: Xybernaut is definitely being conservative with details in their news releases. This is probably good business, as I suspect many clients are utilizing Xybernaut's product to gain a strategic advantage over their competition. Silence is gold. Early production is going predominantly to contract customers. Once production rates can satisfy this market, I would expect street availability and media reviews to commence. We're over the hump. The production line at Sony is moving. Now if they'd just give us more of the numbers! All in good time, I guess. As far as discount prices for contract clients, I would not expect the price to drop significantly, as service contracts and various support functions will be critical to the corporate deals. These are never simple or cheap. Shoe. * -I'm referring to the calendar millenium, not the religious millenium (or whatever the heck kind it is). And if you were truly concerned, you might realize the Y2K bug is a selfish cause. Computers have only been around for 50 years. What about the 10K bug??? Couldn't we now just add a fifth digit in front of all years to avoid the catastrophe we are setting our children's children up for? Sorry, I think I got off on another tangent.