To: Zardoz who wrote (25943 ) 1/11/1999 8:50:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116791
en jumps, bulls ready to run at sign of BOJ 04:42 p.m Jan 11, 1999 Eastern By Chizu Nomiyama LONDON (Reuters) - The yen stampeded to its highest level in more than two years against the dollar Monday, but traders grew wary of provoking the Japanese central bank into pushing the yen down. The yen's gain of 2 percent Monday to a 28-month high was the latest leg of a rally that began in early December. Investor eagerness to buy Japanese government bonds, whose yields have doubled in the past month, fueled flows into the yen. On the other side of the equation, worries about Brazil's economy put pressure on the dollar. ''We are now at a level where the Bank of Japan would be justified in expressing its displeasure at developments, either through direct intervention or by dollar buying from semi-governmental institutions,'' said Rob Miniken, currency strategist at Citibank in London. The dollar slid to 108.58 yen, a fall of almost 5 percent from a week ago. The mood among yen bulls alternated between confidence and nervousness as they drove dollar/yen lower and then shied away as they envisaged a backlash of yen sales from the BOJ. ''People are now starting to get the feeling that the fall in dollar/yen is a bit overdone,'' one trader at a British bank said. ''They're keeping an eye out for the BOJ, of course, although they're not all that worried. If it did come in, it would just give the market something to sell into.'' The market was now eyeing the 105-yen level as the next goal with some analysts citing the key 100 figure. Top-level Japanese officials have started to send warning signals about the recent gyrations in the currency market. On Monday, Vice Finance Minister Koji Tanami said Tokyo would take ''appropriate measures'' in the event of drastic fluctuations and said excessive moves would be unfavorable. Still, many analysts said it was unlikely the Bank of Japan would jump in to sell yen now. ''Obviously the BOJ is going to be concerned and there is a possibility of their coming in at 105, and that level will probably be the market's target in the short term,'' James Mitchell, senior strategist at Nomura International, said. ''We've had several Japanese officials mentioning a range of 110 to 120 recently. It's hard to pinpoint an exact target like that in the foreign exchange market, and a few yen should not be much of a concern for the authorities.'' While the yen has shot higher in recent days, analysts noted it was still near the middle of the range it has seen over the past four years. In April 1995, dollar/yen went as low as 79.70, while in August last year it reached a high of 147.63. Nor is dollar/yen moving at the breakneck pace it showed in October, when the dollar fell a stunning 17 percent in three days. Traders still look back on those few days with a shiver, but there was no sign of intervention then. ''They (the Bank of Japan) have never had a currency target. They've let dollar/yen go down to 80 in the past so you can forget about intervention at this stage,'' said Peter von Maydell, currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. Such a slide in dollar/yen seems puzzling because Japan's economic situation remains dire. The economy has been in recession for four straight quarters and is suffering from an ailing financial industry. Analysts say there that dollar weakness is part of the equation. Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.