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To: Little Joe who wrote (25952)	1/11/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

LJ, du yu think I'll go the way of Ron Brown -g- it's ok, i don' fly much -g- right shoulder in place, it couldn't make it in April, it couldn't make it in October, it couldn't make it in September. but 4th times a charm bb

To: Little Joe who wrote (25952)	1/11/1999 10:49:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Not out of the woods By LARRY ELLIOTT THE children's writer A.A.Milne, saw the world as divided into two types: Tiggers and Eeyores. Tiggers bounce around, always looking on the bright side of life; Eeyores are gloomy and downcast, eternal pessimists. It was the year of the Eeyores in 1998. As the shock waves from South-East Asia rippled through the global economy, the talk was of meltdown and depression, of a return to the 1930s. The first few days of 1999 have seen the Tiggers bounce back. Wall Street has powered to a new record on the back of strong employment data, shares in London have been going through the roof, the euro has slid effortlessly down the slipway and is steaming along nicely. The crisis is over; everything in the 100-Acre Wood is fine, just fine. Only Jeremiahs would point out that America seems to be witnessing its own version of the Albanian pyramid-selling scam with unwitting (yet greedy) punters piling into worthless bubble stocks. Only Eeyores would note that it was not getting down the slipway that caused problems for the Titanic but the dirty great iceberg in the middle of the North Atlantic. But the Eeyores have a case. They say the world economy is seriously out of kilter, suffering from a glut of production, a dearth of controls on international capital and balanced precariously on a bloated American sharemarket. Seen from this perspective, the fact that the Dow Jones continues to defy gravity changes nothing. It makes the Eeyores even more convinced they are right. The first few days of 1999 have seen Japan's economic problems deepening, the threat of a debt default by one of Brazil's biggest states and a rise in German unemployment. Latin America looks precarious with Chile, Venezuela and Mexico all hit hard by the collapse in global commodity prices and Brazil fighting a rearguard action to defend an over-valued exchange rate. Industrial production and consumer spending are already collapsing across the continent in the face of higher interest rates. Clearly, many people feel that the crisis of the past 18 months has far from played itself out and that urgent reforms are required. But attempts to convene an emergency meeting of the IMF this month to speed reforms of the global financial system have been scotched by the Americans, who believe such a gathering would merely unsettle the markets. Wall Street is awash with Tiggers, telling ordinary Americans that fears of a 1929-style crash are unfounded and that investing money in companies that have never made a cent in profit is a sound move. The US Government has the same mindset and is using its influence to block reforms. The US economy has many strengths. It is dominant in the three growth industries of the 21st century - biotechnology, information technology and multi-media - and, over the medium term, will prosper. The same could have been said in 1929. The US economy was spearheading the industries that drove the post-war consumer boom, yet still suffered a 30per cent drop in output between 1929 and 1933. Does this mean we can pencil in a date for a second Wall Street crash? Almost certainly not. For a start, there may not be a 1929-style crash and, even if there is, no one has the first idea when it will be. Nor should anybody fool themselves that a rerun of the Great Depression would be the trigger for the final collapse of capitalism. Such a collapse would be a disaster for the poorest and most vulnerable people in the global economy. Besides, based on the record of the past two centuries, the continuation of some form of market-based system looks more likely than revolution followed by centralised state planning. That said, the chances of a new and more serious bout of turbulence are considerable, this time affecting America and western Europe. Graham Turner, economist with Tokai Bank, a leading Eeyore, says: ''The world economy faces a tumultuous year in 1999 which threatens to eclipse any of the difficulties experienced during the past 12 months. The fundamental imbalance between consuming power and excessive supply that has led to sustained downward pressure on prices and, in turn, on profits, has shown few signs of abating.'' Turner believes the Japanese economy could contract by 5per cent this year, a great deal for a country which accounts for 17per cent of global GDP. And ''continental Europe's failure to address its supply-side deficiencies has left it hopelessly exposed to the ravages of falling prices, which threaten to push unemployment up to politically difficult levels over the next two years''. Beneath the glossy surface of the US economy a profits recession is gathering pace. Profits have been falling for 18 months and corporate tax revenues are no higher now than four years ago. The reality of the world economy is of falling prices and imminent deflation. A dangerous argument is being peddled that suggests low inflation is a guarantor against a recession. It isn't. Recessions that take place during periods of deflation tend to turn into slumps. Deflationary forces are gathering strength. Oil prices have collapsed. The power of international finance, reflected in the creation of huge banking groups, is increasing and needs to be diminished. Winnie the Pooh is said to be more popular in the US than Mickey Mouse. Americans should recall what happened to Tigger. He climbed a tree with Roo on his back and then found he was stuck. ''Getting Tigger down,'' said Eeyore, ''and not hurting anybody. Keep those two ideas in your head, Piglet, and you'll be all right.'' Sound advice. But, in the end, Tigger fell out of the tree. GUARDIAN theage.com.au