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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H.A.M. who wrote (58744)	1/12/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: H.A.M.	Respond to of 61433

Some On Msg Brds Wary Of Lucent-Ascend Merger Reports By JOHANNA BENNETT Dow Jones Newswires January 11, 1999 NEW YORK -- It's the deal that investors have been waiting months to hear about. But reports that Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) is in talks to buy Ascend Communications Inc. (ASND) - though widely embraced on Internet message boards and supported by bearish stock prices and options trading - was being downplayed by some online investors with a more cynical attitude. "Just a little warning to the thread," said one participant on Silicon Investor. "If, and I'm if, LU comes out and says they are not in talks to buy asnd, we will be in for a large and sudden drop." Message boards often erupt in enthusiasm over news of a merger, regardless of whether it has been confirmed. The result, usually, is rows of messages that speculate about bid prices, reiterate the latest news wire headlines and trumpet the good fortune of those with long positions. A deal between Lucent and Ascend, which was reported Monday by the Financial Times, has been the topic of speculation for months. Meanwhile, Ascend's stock price was rising Monday amidst heavy trading volume, and option activity also was heavy, as traders scrambled to buy Ascend calls at any price. But some participants on financial message boards remembered the seesaw ride experienced by Bay Network shares during the months of speculation over its merger with Northern Telecom Ltd. (NT). Shares of Ascend closed Monday at 76 11/16, up 5 1/4, or 7.3% on a trading volume of 17.6 million shares. The stock, which was priced in the high 20s a year ago, has been rising fairly steadily throughout the past year. For others, the potential profits of a merger announcement were outweighed by a need for caution. One investor seemed convinced it was time to liquidate his position, unwilling to take a risk that the speculation, which was driving up stock prices Monday, could prove false. "You take an even greater risk by staying in," said "Devil's Advocate," a Silicon Investor participant. "This stock has been rising on takeover rumors for months now. If LU denies the deal, the stock will drop." - By Johanna Bennett; 201-938-5670

To: H.A.M. who wrote (58744)	1/12/1999 12:15:00 AM
From: Jack Whitley	Respond to of 61433

<<Ascend, Alameda, Calif., received a preliminary offer from Lucent, Murray Hill, N.J., nearly two weeks ago, these people said. A more formal offer will be considered Tuesday.>> I think someone said this a couple of hundred posts ago, but today's leaks were just a probe to gauge market reaction and how LU would be valued. I think it will go off at 1 for 1, and equilibrium will be reached at $100 per share. I would love for the deal to be based on a cap an collar that says ASND gets $100 per share LU stock equivalent REGARDLESS of LU stock price move, within a certain range. Outside the range, deal's off. I'm very flush on this one, but if we get 1 for 1, I am not selling. What per cent of the $600 billion market in 2001 do you think LU/ASND can carve out? jww

To: H.A.M. who wrote (58744)	1/12/1999 1:06:00 AM
From: H.A.M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Excerpts from The New York Times (Tuesday, Jan. 12, 1999) under the title "Lucent to Buy Kenan for $1.45 Billion, but Is Mum on Possible Acquisition of Ascend," by By BARNABY J. FEDER and LAURA M. HOLSON: Still, it was not the primary deal on investors' minds. The drop in Lucent shares was driven by nervousness about a possible deal with Ascend. Based on current valuations, such a deal would be 10 times pricier than the Kenan acquisition. Speculation has been rampant for more than a year that Lucent might someday buy Ascend as it prepares to take on Cisco Systems, the giant of data networking. As data networks like the Internet and phone networks converge so that the same services can be offered over both, newcomers like Cisco and Ascend are increasingly competing directly with traditional telecommunications equipment makers like Lucent and Northern Telecom. Lucent is continuing its talks with Ascend Communications, which were first reported in The Financial Times, although it is not known if or when an announced deal is likely, people close to the talks said. The companies have had talks over the last several months, but Ascend had always asserted it could remain independent. In a recent October conference call with analysts, Mory Ejabat, the president and chief executive officer of Ascend, evaded the topic of a buyout and said his company was then not having talks with Lucent executives. "It was kind of like saying I have not had sexual relations with that woman Monica Lewinsky," said Paul Sagawa, a senior research analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, who took part in the conference call. "It was so clearly a Clintonesque response." An Ascend acquisition would also be a departure from what Ken Fehrnstrom, vice president for strategic business development for Ascend, said in an interview late last month. He reiterated Ascend's desire to remain independent and compared the company to a "small dog that doesn't know it's a small dog. It will go after the big dogs." He also joked, "Maybe some day we could acquire Nortel," referring to Lucent's $36 billion Canadian rival Northern Telecom.