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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (3729)	1/12/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: E. Graphs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

RE: Advance /Decline Line: Notice what happened from 1/03/94 to 1/03/95 decisionpoint.com Divergence did not spell doom in this case....what am I missing?

To: j g cordes who wrote (3729)	1/12/1999 11:24:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE - ================================== For those who have not noticed YAHOO pulled back about 75 points off its highs today and we have only been trading for 1 hour. I checked the INTERNET INDEX(DOT.X) and the range is already about 100 points from its highs to its lows so far today, although it is off its lows right now. I mention this since I discussed parabolic spikes in an earlier post, where I noticed that these parobolic spikes only last a few days. The way the internuts have reacted so far is hinting that it is a parabolic spike not a strong move up to a higher range, but of course not yet conclusive. If in the next few days these internuts give up about 50% of the upspike(not total price), then it could be concluded that it was a parabolic spike and some more negativity should be forthcoming for the overall market, since the internuts are the momentum leaders of the market. On the other hand if the internuts resume their upswing or forms a base without selling off alot more then that would be a positive sign and imply that the selling that occured today was just some profit taking. At this time I am leaning more towards a parabolic spike leading to further negativity in the market for the mid-term(30 days). Im not saying that this market cant move higher just that we may have a mid-term top and there could be a sizeable pullback forthcoming. I no longer post my exact trades, but I will say that I either closed all my longs or hedged them by selling calls in my IRA. As for my trading account I initiated a small put position, and I kept it very small for now. As I previously mentioned I am leaning towards FRI/MON for the TOP, but did start now just in case. I will be watching the internuts to see if they recover - if they do recover than this pullback will be only small and then probably off to the races again to the upside. Yesterday I got the CLASS 1 SELL signal on the NAZ with the buy-in at todays highs. Well the NAZ was already down 40+ points, which is approximately 200 DOW points, so the NAZ has already met its minimum requirement of my CLASS 1 SELL signal. Also the DOW fullfilled the minimum requirement, also in the 1st day. I want to also mention something else. On a statistical basis, when my signals are timely the move, whether up or down are normal. When my signals are early, it normally indicates that the move will be weak, and when they are late it normally means that the move could be very strong. My CLASS 1 SELL signals yesterday on the DOW/SPX and today on the NAZ are very timely implying that there should be some strength to this pullback - again, Im not saying the BK. For example, during last FEB/MAR when the market was running up hard, I still got sell signals but they were all a day or 2 early and the pullbacks were minimal(75 points minimum). During the selloff in AUG/SEPT my sell signals were late where the market sold off on the signal day not the buy-in day, so the down movement was a day early or my signal was a day late - however you want to view it. The same occurs on the BUY signals. I do watch the timing and effectiveness of my CLASS SIGNALS on a statistical basis. Please keep in mind they are only for the initial pop, but the timing of them do give hints, as just mentioned whether the movement could be strong or weak or average. I hope I made some sense. So since these signals were timely it implies that the DOW should pullback an average amount which is around 300-600 points(near 5%). Seeya