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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (43027)1/12/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
When would you consider a 2nd round of puts on CDWC?



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (43027)1/12/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: PaperChase  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
MB. Thank you for your remarks about the state of the PC industry.

>>How can someone view a 3 year decline in sales growth as temporary? Even the bulls aren't that stupid. And as we turn negative this year, they are going to be shocked that their boom in sales is really a bust. Nope, investors will dump the pc related stocks and, if there is no general crash, move into other areas<<

I do have a disagreement with your "conventional" logic. Has the street behaved this way in other related tech areas such as memory (ala Micron) when problems of a glut were very well publicized? Did the market destroy the stock prices of semi-equip companies when they admitted to their industry problems? Yes and No. Their stock prices sold off sharply for a few months and then, over a period of 18 months, roared right back. For example, the street kept the action on MU's stock price going long enough to get thru the pit of the downturn. That is the game as I see it...a game that a pure fundamentalist like Bill Fleck has not understood well.

While I disagree with your outlook, I do however agree with your strategy of using Puts to play out your strategy. Sadly, if Fleck had used this strategy he would not be so cynical.