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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zoya who wrote (3763)	1/12/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Zoya, >>>>> do you think the market may go up moderately tomorrow(on the heels of intc and yhoo earnings) and go down big on friday. <<<<< Sorry, but I really dont have a crystal ball. I work on probability and when my short-term technicals become a CLASS signal the probability of some sort of reversal, whatever the size is, is high. However, once the market moves in the direction of the reversal such moves the the short-term technicals into the mid-range. Once its in the mid range my short-term technicals are basicly useless and it becomes a flip of the coin. After the CLASS SELL signals happened, the DOW has pulled back about 200 points and the NAZ over 60. However, as mentioned earlier since the timing was right on, the statistical probability is that the market will continue down more, but now I cant say on a day-to-day basis what will happen. It would only be a guess what would happen tomorrow, not based on any statistical probability. So what I am saying is that there are times that predictions have a high success rate and there are times that they are low, and this would be one of those low times. Seeya