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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: add who wrote (7035)	1/12/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: I. N. Vester	Respond to of 27311

I don't expect to any significant run-ups in R&d or inventory expenses until 1Q calendar '99 at earliest, per FRB's remarks about 'shipping samples in earnest' starting in Jan. VLNC could start building up inventories this quarter, but per Lev's remarks that would probably only happen if an end-user OEM is done designing and ready to actually ship product in the 2nd quarter. It also makes sense that the OEM's will not want to take delivery of large numbers of batteries before they have the devices to put them in coming off their own product lines. I wonder how much lead time is required for vlnc to ship cells to the packager who will then be supplying the oem's. A couple weeks maybe? Wasn't there an article recently about possible new Palm device being available in the 2nd quarter, with Li-poly battery? Check out the transcript of UBLI's recent shareholder meeting, posted on Yahoo Vlnc thread. A must read. I found it very interesting that the UBLI CEO, when asked about the timeframe for li-poly battteries in computers mentioned OEMs planning products for availability '2-3 years out'. That's a lot more conservative than Lev, who was quoted as confident that Vlnc will be booking revenues this year. Maybe they are not talking to the same OEMs. Time will tell, and it sounds like quarters rather than weeks are the correct unit to measure the time in. I'm sticking with my long position as I am not in the business of trying to guess when the shipments will start. My guess is 'any quarter now'.