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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (43098)	1/12/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Chris, I don't know what puts I am adding next until the time approaches. I am real happy with what I have now. Just about everything is a put candidate. I would say I expect Dell to be weak, but since they don't report until Feb, which means a warning won't occur until the end of this month, I am holding off on that one. MB

To: valueminded who wrote (43098)	1/14/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: eabDad	Respond to of 132070

Chris: << if the biggest semiconductor company is slashing spending by 25% for capital, how is is this good for AMAT and NVLS?>> Some meat behind the nums... (1) The $4.0 billion last year included the asset purchase of DEC. The actual spending rate on new capacity was really $3.53 billion. (2) 1998 spending had a large mix of building/facilities and assembly equipment. 1999 spending has a low building/facilties mix and packaging equipment is way down as they are starting to outsource that element. Front-end equipment spending will actually be up in '99. (3) The $3.0 billion for 1999 does not include 300mm stuff and I have heard that INTC will spend some for 300mm very late in the year, which would increase the num. Unfortunately, this news now weakens my thesis for KLIC (sigh). While I think KLIC will hit 30 because of an order rate increase from other sources, it will fall short of my original target. TER should still do well in anticipation of Rambus DRAM which will not be ready anyway <g>. Z