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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (6243)	1/12/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Greetings from H&Q As Dick Vitale might say "Awesome baby" The following are my thoughts from the main presentation: Biogen presented in the main ballroom and it was packed with people standing three deep in the back. Vincent made an excellent presentation reminding people that he joined the company as CEO in 85 when the company was close to Bankrupt. It was Vincent who was instrumental is fixing the balance sheet, putting the company on solid financial footing and developing Avonex. He then talked about the progress and momentum of Avonex. 31,000 US patients at year end and 13,000 in Europe. I won't repeat what was in the press release but earnings and rev for the 4th q exceeded my expectations. They did not give an estimate for 99 but put up a slide that showed $700m in sales for 99. They also suggested that there would be slight bottom line margin improvements between now and 20001. Back of thevelope v1 estimates show $2.55-2.75 in EPS in 99. A lot will depend on the R&D spend which is ramping up. Avonex has a 2-1 market share lead in the US. Internal goal of 100,000 patients by 2001. Evidence is growing showing the benefit of early tretment to slow brain atrophy. We could be looking at a billion dollar drug by 2001-2002. More to come

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (6243)	1/13/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Cytokine1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 1/13/99 Change -$11194 DOWN -4.27% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^IXB UP 1.34% YTD EQUITY CHANGE 3.9% # CURRENT DAILY CURRENT COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHANGE %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= CLTR 1000 28.00 1.00 3.70% 28000 10.875 10875 157.5% 11.1% INIS 1000 13.75 -0.75 -5.17% 13750 11.25 11250 22.2% 5.5% MLNM 1000 31.75 0.31 0.99% 31750 18.931 18931 67.7% 12.6% INCY 1500 32.50 -2.69 -7.64% 48750 30.606 45909 6.2% 19.4% MOGN 3000 11.88 -2.00 -14.41% 35625 8.667 26000 37.0% 14.2% CGPI 2000 9.88 -0.38 -3.66% 19750 9.00 18000 9.7% 7.9% SEPR 300 92.38 0.50 0.54% 27713 86.00 25800 7.4% 11.0% ABSC 2000 8.75 0.00 0.00% 17500 8.735 17470 0.2% 7.0% GZTC 2000 5.56 -0.19 -3.26% 11125 7.737 15475 -28.1% 4.4% LGNDW 3000 5.75 -0.25 -4.17% 17250 8.75 26250 -34.3% 6.9% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 251213 215960 16.3% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 76.4% MIN 30% (59213) BUYING POWER $ ______ 132786 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 191999 100000 92.0% ^IXB INDEX 441.84 5.83 1.34% 302.42 46.1% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 1/7/99 16725 AGPH sold 300 @ $55.75