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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (43119)	1/13/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

GBH: I wouldn't bet my house on the fact that Dell is still exclusively using only Intel products. (g) Best, Earlie

To: gbh who wrote (43119)	1/13/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

GBH, You are talking stock, I am talking business. Mostly, what I see for Dell right now is in the sentiment and gut feel and unanswered questions category. For the first time in six years, Dell did not scream that sales were gangbusters in December. Forecasts to suppliers of component needs seem to be declining. Mikey just sold 8 million shares. Salesmen are complaining about small bonuses because they missed their quotas. Even Intel said that 1Q would be down. They lied when they claimed seasonal factors, as Intel eps have been up 4Q to 1Q 5 of the last 6 years. What has happened is called a pc glut, especially at the business end where there are no orders. I strongly suspect that Dell will soon not be an Intel only shop, not that that has any bearing on anything. Intel had a horrible year capped by one decent quarter. The reason for that decent quarter was a grotesque overbuild of boxes in the US. That won't happen this year now that the glut is in place. Less to do with Dell than with other indirect sellers, but still the major factor in their growth scenario. Unit sales of boxes were up at retail, while prices were down (the only reason units were up), making it one of the worst revenue growth fourth quarters ever for retail box sales. But that is not the case in business sales, where Dell makes its living. Even unit sales are stinking there. Yes, there is a possibility that Dell gained enough market share to offset the general decline, but I think the other, specific, gut feel factors argue against this. Remember, Dell does not have to just grow to keep this silly stock price. It has to show tremendous growth this quarter. And I think the odds favor a bet against that one. MB