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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (3789)	1/12/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby- bearish engulfing stick yesterday and confirmation today on alot of the indexes.......bye-bye!! Console me on NEM.....Is it going to be ok? B*

To: bobby beara who wrote (3789)	1/13/1999 8:08:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE =========================== Originally, I felt that the market would just trade in a range this year of up and down 10%, but now I am leaning towards a bear market to restart sometime this year. I have heard it several times and John Bollinger yesterday on CNBC indicated that all manias precede a bear market. He did not specificly state that it would happen immediately after the TOP, whenever that occurs, but I believe that to be the case. I am not saying that we cant go higher, just that once we TOP the slide downwards will not be small. Im not calling a BK, but that could happen also. Yes, the market can go higher but it will probably not stay there. I do believe that the TOP will occur sometime between now and MAY. Many believe that OCT was the beginning of a new BULL market, but I feel that this is just a continuation since the market internals yet have not returned to BULL MARKET levels. Some say that the market internals lag the price to the upside and some are totally discounting them. I checked the last 20 years and in all BULL RUNS the NEW HIGHs were consistently over 100 and closer to the 200 range consistently. Although the DOW as regained all of its losses, the DOW is only 200-300 points above the 9380 peak in JULY, which is only about 2% higher. Many only look at the runup from 7400 but discount the fact that we are only 2% above the previous peak. So if there is a new BULL market then it starts at 9380 not at 7400. How much higher will the market go before the top - I dont know now, but we need to watch this pullback and the next upswing very carefully. If this pullback is large than that could be the first clue that it may be the top or if the next upswing does not set higher highs that would be a significant sign, but of course would require further confirmation. I have been noticing that the MEGAPHONE has yet to be resolved in many stocks. I understand that the MEGAPHONE implies strong volitiliy in either direction. Personally, all my LONGs were either closed yesterday or hedged by selling calls. Yes I may miss the next runup, but I hardly ever get the full runup. Im satisfied with the profit - a ZEN thing. gggggggggggggggggg I mention this so I dont have to hear from the BULLs "but you didnt get the full runup", I never do, but I bet I get a heck of alot closer to reversal points than many. Im sorry if I sound like Im pounding my chest, but I do get tired of getting emails from some nasty bulls recently who are afraid of putting their comments on this forum for all to see. Seeya