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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Patterson who wrote (4196)	1/13/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 4634

Steve, Most industry market analysis indicates that we're pretty close to a stalled position on PC market pentetration. Most new PCs are sold to households who already had one. In many cases we're now going after the "second PC" market. About 30% of the population will probably not get on the internet except through simplified access devices. That said, a large portion of PC owners still are not significantly involved in the internet. This is to say that they MAY have email, may occasionally use the web, but don't participate in any way that has much of a commercial benefit to anybody beyond the $20 they give their ISP every month. That said, I've been doing this long enough that I remember a similar phase in the 80s, when the future was biotech, Genentech just had gotten their approval (but still wasn't profitable), Amgen was coming along fast, and every biotech stock was shot straight to the moon because of those young charismatic people who were going to cure cancer, diabetes, heart disease and everything else. Someday. Many of those companies no longer exist. Many of the ones that do are still working on the same (or similar) problems and their stocks languish in the low single digits. Even the profitable and successful ones have never reached the heights that many of their most ardent supporters believed possible. Maybe they will, someday. Maybe the better internuts will too... mg